235
FXUS63 KUNR 200518
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1018 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND BREEZY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING, BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
- SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 442 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST THROUGH 7PM
MST AS GUSTS TO 50KTS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN CAMPBELL/WESTON
COUNTIES. COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED NORTHEASTERN WY AT 23Z, SO IT
SHOULD DROP THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
CURRENT UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SK. AT THE SURFACE A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOSTLY THROUGH THE CWA, WITH A COLD FRONT
IN MONTANA, SOON TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY SIT IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS, 40S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST.
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, BRINGING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT
ANY PRECIPITATION TO START OFF AS RAIN, BUT TRANSITION TO SNOW AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. WHILE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION, THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE IN NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING INTO THE UPSLOPE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE REGIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WHILE ELSEWHERE CAN EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS.
SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS
15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE
SHORT LIVED, AS UPPER MILD RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,
PROMOTING A WARMING TREND TO START THE NEW WEEK. ZONAL-ISH FLOW
WILL PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
CHRISTMAS WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY SPARK SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, HOWEVER EXPECT MOSTLY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
A BAND OF (MOSTLY) SNOW WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
AS IT DISSIPATES BY 20/12Z. AREAS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...HELGESON
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...HELGESON
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