286
FXUS63 KUNR 210446
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
946 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-MILD AND WINDY PATTERN TO CONTINUE IN THE PERIOD
-UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50
AND 60S MOST DAYS, SUPPORTING RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS AT
TIMES
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2025
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PAC WILL DISLODGE THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, SUPPORTING MILD, DRY, AND
WINDY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD LOCALLY. STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WITH PASSING IMPULSES
SUPPORTING INCREASED WIND AT TIMES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
SUPPORT WAA TONIGHT, WITH PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND
FOOTHILLS SEEING TEMPS RISES LATER IN THE NIGHT. SOME HIGH
CENTERED MOISTURE AND FGEN WILL SUPPORT THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WITH PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
HALF. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT IN NORTHEAST WY, THE BLACK
HILLS, AND FOOTHILLS AS PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE WITH INCREASED
FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD SUPPORT ADV LEVEL WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS
LATER IN THE NIGHT AND ESP DURING THE DAY MONDAY WHEN THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HILLS.
MUCH WARMER TOMORROW WITH 40S AND A FEW 50S EXPECTED. EVEN WARMER
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MANY PLACES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF EXPECTED IN THE 60S. BASICALLY A REPEAT TUE INTO WED WITH
WAA ENSUING AND WINDS INCREASING. RECORD HIGHS INTO THE 60S WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS EVE, AND POSSIBLY CHRISTMAS DAY IF THE
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. DISMISSING THE MUCH
COLDER AIR THE GFS HAS FOR FRIDAY, WHICH IS AN OUTLIER FROM THE
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE MEAN ENSEMBLES. OTHER
THAN THE SPRINKLE CHANCES TOMORROW, THE ONLY OTHER SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT/UPPER TROUGH.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 946 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...DYE
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