703
FXUS63 KUNR 211928
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1228 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS
-MILD AND WINDY PATTERN TO CONTINUE IN THE PERIOD
-UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50,
60S, AND FEW 70S THROUGH MID WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PAC WILL DISLODGE THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, SUPPORTING MILD, DRY, AND
WINDY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK LOCALLY. STORM TRACK WILL
REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WITH PASSING IMPULSES
SUPPORTING INCREASED WIND AT TIMES. THERE ARE GROWING INDICATIONS
FOR A STRONGER COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BRING A SHORT
DURATION OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER POTENTIALLY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTING WAA WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY. SOME HIGH CENTERED
MOISTURE AND FGEN WILL SUPPORT THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH
PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NW SD THIS EVENING
AS THE BAND SHIFTS ENE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT IN NORTHEAST
WY, PARTS OF THE BLACK HILLS, AND ESP THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AS
PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. PROGGED FLOW OF
50 TO 60 KNOTS JUST ABOVE 1000 FT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX
DOWN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
HERMOSA FOOTHILLS ZONES EARLY MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON
VIA TERRAIN FORCING. THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN AFTER A COOL FRONT
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MUCH WARMER MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COOL FRONT WITH MANY PLACES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF EXPECTED IN THE
60S. A FEW LOWER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. THE CURRENT
RECORDS AT RAPID CITY AND AT KRAP ARE 65 AND 67 RESPECTIVELY. SO
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO TIE OR BREAK THOSE RECORDS. BASICALLY A
REPEAT TUE INTO WED WITH WAA ENSUING AND WINDS INCREASING. RECORD
HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON CHRISTMAS EVE
AHEAD THE NEXT COLD FRONT. COOLER CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH, BUT STILL MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S MANY PLACES.
GROWING INDICATIONS FOR A STRONGER COLD FRONT FRI-SAT WITH A BRIEF
ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR. SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW AS
WELL, ALTHOUGH THE MAIN AREA OF LIFT/FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FA.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS. THERE WILL BE A SHORT
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (AROUND 30 KNOTS) ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS FROM 22Z TO 03Z BEFORE THE WINDS
INCREASE AT THE SURFACE.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM MST MONDAY FOR SDZ027-074.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...15
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page