082
FXUS63 KUNR 241115
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
415 AM MST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY, MAINLY DRY, AND UNSEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEK.
- RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
- CHANCE OF SNOW AND MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST WED DEC 24 2025
09Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS, WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS, WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. COOL SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS
PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL SD, WITH WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY, THE BLACK HILLS, AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SD.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 2 AM RANGE FROM THE 20S
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN SD, TO THE 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND FAR
SOUTHWEST SD.
CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD, TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. SEVERAL TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO FALL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FOR TODAY, HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S FROM NORTHEAST WY
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD, WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS NORTHWEST SD.
ON THURSDAY, THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS JUST A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH, WITH
60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT FAR NORTHWESTERN SD.
BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE BLACK HILLS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FOR FRIDAY, SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA, WITH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY.
UPPER RIDGE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST FOR THE WEEKEND, AS A STRONG UPPER
TROF CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
MORE SEASONAL READINGS ON SATURDAY, WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA, WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINING UNDER FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FROM THE CHILLY TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST WED DEC 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA AFTER 02Z
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15
AVIATION...15
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