054
FXUS63 KUNR 260946
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
246 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN TODAY.
- COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS, COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
- COLDER SUNDAY, BUT WARMING BACK UP FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
CURRENT UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST
COAST. 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NOW OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
SD, HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF ND. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SIT IN
THE 30S TO MID 40S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY, GIVEN LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT
PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. COULD SEE SOME RAIN EARLY ON, BUT RAPIDLY COOLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A QUICK TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SNOW. MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATING SNOW,
HOWEVER THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO. STRONG
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIAL
ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING
OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
50-90% SIGNAL FOR GUSTS > 45 MPH STRETCHING FROM NORTHWESTERN SD
DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
BY EARLY SUNDAY UPPER LOW SITS OVER NORTH DAKOTA, RESULTING IN A
BIG CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. STRONG LOW-
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
DROPPING INTO THE NEGATIVES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.
EXPECT THIS COLD SNAP TO BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS UPPER LOW
SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA BY MONDAY AND UPPER RIDGE ONCE
AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW SITS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A
LITTLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY, BUT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST THU DEC 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT. LLWS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SD AND
PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...WONG
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