124
FXUS63 KUNR 101746
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1046 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING, THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH ON THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS.
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE
IN SOME SPOTS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM
ND/MN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING
OVER THE WEST COAST WITH WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY SITTING
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. A NW/SE SFC FRONT SITS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
SD AND EXTENDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN SD. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S.
A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING,
PUSHING THE SFC FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION
WITH GENERALLY A DUSTING UP TO AN INCH OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS
AND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. WEAK PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3 MB/3 HR WILL SUPPORT
WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH, MAINLY IN OUR USUAL WINDY SPOTS
ALONG THE STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS, THOUGH THE WINDS
MAY COMBINE WITH FALLING SNOW TO PRODUCED LOCAL REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES.
WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL BROADEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN US RIDGE BUILDS. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY DRY THOUGH OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP, BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. NEXT COOL DOWN AND CHANCES FOR SNOW LOOK TO BE
LATE NEXT WEEK IN THE FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME AS LARGE UPPER TROF SWINGS
DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PUSHES THE RIDGE WESTWARD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SD PLAINS
AND NORTHERN BLACK HILLS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 30
TO 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD, WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 45 KTS POSSIBLE. THE WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER 11/00Z RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...HINTZ
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