322
FXUS63 KUNR 110450
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
950 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EXPECT UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
- FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, EXPECT A RETURN TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES HERALDED BY A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS AND POTENTIALLY
STRONG WINDS
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM EASTERN MT INTO
CENTRAL NE. WATER VAPOUR MATINEE HAD UPPER LOW OVER KDLH WITH WEAK
SHEAR AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHEAR AXIS INTERACTING WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING PATCHY BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW. ACTIVITY
WILL QUICKLY DIE THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY, FRONTAL BOUNDARY SCOOTS EAST AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT, BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER NORTHWESTERN
SD. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, EXPECT
MILD TEMPERATURES MONDAY. TUESDAY, A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED
SHORTWAVE WILL ZIP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING A
BACK DOOR COOL FRONT INTO THE CWA TUESDAY. RESULT WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS (<30% CHANCE GUSTS >45MPH) AT TIMES AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. MIGHT SEE PATCHY QPF,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT UPPER TROUGH RAPIDLY DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. A
COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL SLICE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS, EACH
WITH A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. PROBABLY OF
>45MPH GUSTS 20-40% BOTH DAYS ON THE WESTERN SD PLAINS WITH ECMWF
EFI GIVING 70-90TH PERCENTILE WIND GUSTS/0-1 SHIFT OF TAILS. HOW
WINDY REMAINS TO BE SEEN, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
HEADLINES GIVEN PATTERN AND ROBUST COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH EACH
COLD FRONT. SYSTEM WON'T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO POPS
GENERALLY LOW.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 930 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 131 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY/MONDAY. BREEZY/GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RESULT WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...HELGESON
AVIATION...SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...HELGESON
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