559
FXUS63 KUNR 111051
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
351 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, DRY WEATHER, AND ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WITH
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHERN PLAINS SITS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW, A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING THE REGION WITH
THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS BEING INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO 20 TO 30 DEGREES OVER
THE WESTERN SD PLAINS AND TO THE 30S TO LOW 40S OVER THE BLACK
HILLS AND NORTHEASTERN WY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEK, BRINGING WARMER TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH TUESDAY. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL. THE DRY WEATHER, ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. MORE DETAILS IN THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION.
PATTERN SHIFT COMMENCES BY THE MID WEEK WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL TROFS AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY, BRINGING
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN SD AND THE BLACK
HILLS. THE NEXT SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER TROF DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THESE SYSTEMS WITH LREF PROBS
SHOWING <10% CHANCES FOR GREATER THAN 0.1" QPF WITH EITHER SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, THERE'S INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THESE SYSTEMS BEING 5
TO 6 DAYS OUT, STILL NOT SURE AS TO HOW STRONG THESE WINDS WILL
GET BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN AND STRONG CAA BEHIND THESE FRONTS,
COULD SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL (45MPH+) GUSTS OR HIGHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE
50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MINIMUM RHS DROPPING
TO 17 TO 30%. THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH (WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40
MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST SD) WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN SD AND
NORTHEASTERN WY.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH RHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER (25
TO 40%). A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH
SUSTAINED, GUSTING TO 45 TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP OUT OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH WITH THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS SEEING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS DRY COLD
FRONTS AND ACCOMPANYING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...WONG
FIRE WEATHER...WONG
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