296
FXUS63 KUNR 132102
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
202 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING.
- AFTER A QUIET WEDNESDAY, HIGH WIND EVENT POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH WIND GUSTS 60-80 MPH POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
CURRENT UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST,
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRAVERSING THE CWA. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS SCATTERED AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY SIT IN THE 40S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS, 30S OVER
THE BLACK HILLS, WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, WITH ONGOING AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS. NO CHANCES TO THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES, WITH
WIND ADVISORY DROPPING OFF AT 00Z. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER
ELEVATION BLACK HILLS WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
1-3 INCHES THROUGH TODAY.
AFTER A QUIET WEDNESDAY, ATTENTION TURNS TO THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE RIDES THE RIDGE DOWN FROM CANADA THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.
SCANT MOISTURE WITH THIS DISTURBANCE LIKELY WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION TO MAYBE SOME VERY LIGHT FLURRIES OVER THE UPSLOPE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS TWO BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH. PRESSURE RISES ARE FAIRLY
MODEST WITH BOTH FRONTS, WITH THE NAM AND GFS POINTING TO
2-4MB/3HR RISES. HOWEVER COUPLED WITH STRONG CAA, EXPECT STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR BOTH DAYS. EFI SHOWS THE STRONGEST SIGNAL ON
FRIDAY (95 PERCENT). NBM PROBABILITIES OF 55 MPH OR GREATER SIT IN
THE 60-90% RANGE BOTH DAYS, WHILE PROBABILITY OF 65 MPH OR GREATER
FOR FRIDAY SITS IN THE 60-80% RANGE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN SD
PLAINS. WIND HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH DAYS. EXPECT
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, WITH FRIDAY'S HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE 20S AND LOW
30S.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EASTWARD, HOWEVER WITH THE TRANSITION LINE BETWEEN
AIR MASSES NEAR THE FORECAST AREA, SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
A SHIELD OF RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS
THIS MORNING WITH TRANSIENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KRAP AND
KGCC ARE LOW THIS AFTERNOON (<30%). HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF
RAIN SHOWERS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ001-012-013-
031-041-072-073-078.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...SE
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