313
FXUS63 KUNR 141002
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
302 AM MST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND GUSTS OF
70+ ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD.
- LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS FRIDAY
MORNING, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR THE HIGH
WINDS COULD CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS ON
SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST WED JAN 14 2026
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN US WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SITTING UNDER NORTH- NORTHWEST
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S. BACKDOOR FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A
BANK OF LOW STRATUS. BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONT WILL SIT OVER CENTRAL
SD TODAY. HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD THIS MORNING - ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS IS THE HIGH WIND EVENT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD
THURSDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WITH GUSTS OF
55 TO 60 MPH LIKELY BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE HIGH
WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING
INTO FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURING FRIDAY MORNING.
WHILE PRESSURE RISES AREN'T LOOKING VERY IMPRESSIVE (AROUND 1 TO 3
MB/3 HR) NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING
50-60KT GUSTS MIXING TO THE SFC OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. BOTH THE
13/12Z AND 14/00Z ECWMF EFI IS SHOWING WIND GUSTS IN THE 90-95TH
PERCENTILE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOT OF 1, POINTING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER END WIND EVENT. WHILE THE SIGNALS AREN'T
QUITE AS STRONG THIS TIME AS IT WAS FOR OUR HISTORIC WIND EVENT
LAST MONTH, STILL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 60+ MPH AND GUSTS OF UP TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SD (A FEW OF OUR WINDIER SPOTS COULD SEE GUSTS OF UP
TO 80 MPH). LESS CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WIND WARNING GUSTS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WY, THOUGH NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR 55-60KT GUSTS TO MIX DOWN. THEREFORE, HAVE HOISTED A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE WHOLE CWA.
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA, WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, SOME UPSLOPE SNOW MAY FALL OVER THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. ACCUMULATIONS LOOKING MINOR (AROUND AN INCH)
BUT COULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, THOUGH
WINDS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS COULD REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 40-55 MPH POSSIBLE. THERE'S
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SD
PLAINS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA INVOF OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS EXPECTED IN THE PERIOD.
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT ON THE SD
PLAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST WED JAN 14 2026
A PAIR OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS OF UP TO 60+
MPH ARE EXPECTED. WIND WILL STILL BE PLENTY BREEZY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH.
WHILE RHS WON'T BE CRITICALLY LOW (25-35% ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD AND
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS, 35-50% ELSEWHERE), THE
STRONG WINDS, CURED FUELS, AND LACK OF WETTING PRECIP WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 70+ MPH
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. TEMPS WILL HAVE
COOLED OFF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. RHS WILL RANGE
FROM 25 TO 45% WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD
AND THE EASTERN BLACK HILLS. THE HIGH WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS AND
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-025-026-031-032-043-072-073-078.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SDZ024-028.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SDZ027-029-030-041-042-044-046-047-049-074>077.
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR WYZ060.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR WYZ057.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR WYZ054>056-058-059.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...WONG
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