844
FXUS63 KUNR 151727
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1027 AM MST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 60-80MPH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SD
PLAINS, PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON
- VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH WINDS AND DRY AIR
- UPSLOPE-ENHANCED SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, BUT IF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OCCUR, A HIGHER IMPACT MAY DEVELOP
- WIND CHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT BELOW ZERO (0 TO -25F) FOR MANY
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS RETURN FOR SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST THU JAN 15 2026
09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TO TX.
FIRST COLD FRONT SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN MT.
WATER VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA, WHICH WILL BE OUR MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, UPPER TROUGH IS CARVED OUT OVER THE PLAINS
COURTESY OF A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DRIVING A COUPLE OF
COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE CWA. FIRST FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH 2-4MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES AS IT INTENSIFIES
SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. 35-55KT 0-2KM FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60MPH FOR A FEW HOURS, SUPPORTED BY NBM (50% CHANCE
>60MPH) AND FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS (55-70MPH GUSTS IN THE
SQUEEZE AREA NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS). SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ARRIVES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH 1-3MB/3HR PRESSURE
RISES/MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING VERY WELL-MIXED 0-2KM
FLOW (40-70KTS). NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW NEAR 100% CHANCE OF >60MPH
GUSTS FOR THE WESTERN SD PLAINS WITH A 50-80% CHANCE OF >70MPH
GUSTS. ECMWF EFI ALSO SHOW A ROBUST HIGH WIND EVENT. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH FOR 60-80MPH WIND GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (WINDING DOWN
FRIDAY NIGHT), SO HAVE HOISTED HIGH WIND WARNINGS EVERYWHERE TO
ACCOUNT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH SYSTEM, BUT LATEST TRENDS
(ALBEIT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, 25-75TH PERCENTILE HREF 0.1-0.4" QPF)
SUGGEST UPSLOPE-ENHANCED SNOWFALL (FROUDE>1, 0-2KM RH>80%) MAY
OCCUR. IF THESE HIGHER TOTALS BECOME REALITY, HIGHER IMPACTS (AND
HEADLINE CHANGE) MAY OCCUR DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. OTHER WILD CARD
IS SOUTH-CENTRAL SD PER PROXIMITY TO BETTER QG/FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING FRIDAY. BOTH AREAS HAVE BEEN PAINTED WITH SOME BLOWING
SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE, BUT MUCH COLDER BY
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS BOTTOMING OUT FROM +10 TO
-10F FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN 0 TO -25F SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY WILL BE NICER BUT THEN ANOTHER WIND EVENT COULD DEVELOP
FOR SUNDAY GIVEN LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRUSHING THE CWA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES NEXT WEEK WITH
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA RESULTING IN
INCREASING TEMPERATURES SPREADS (10-20F) AND LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
SPECIFIC FORECAST PARAMETERS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST THU JAN 15 2026
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE WINDS
WERE GENERALLY FROM 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND
40KTS THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS AND GUSTS
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT SURFACE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM 30 TO 40KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS FROM 45
TO 65KTS OR HIGHER FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD PEAK AT
40-70KT AFTER 16/06Z ON THE OPEN PLAINS - ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN
SD. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN/NEAR THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE SNOW. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST THU JAN 15 2026
A PAIR OF MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONTS (AT LEAST FOR THE PLAINS,
UPSLOPE-ENHANCED SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS) WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD WHERE GUSTS UP TO 60+
MPH ARE EXPECTED. WIND WILL STILL BE PLENTY BREEZY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH GUSTS OF 40-55MPH. WHILE
RHS WON'T BE CRITICALLY LOW (25-35% ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD AND THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS, 35-50% ELSEWHERE), THE STRONG
WINDS, CURED FUELS, AND LACK OF WETTING PRECIP WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 60-80MPH
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, HIGHEST OVER NORTHWESTERN SD. TEMPS WILL
HAVE COOLED OFF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. RHS WILL
RANGE FROM 25-45% WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
SD AND THE EASTERN BLACK HILLS. THE HIGH WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SDZ001-002-
012-013-025-026-031-072-073-078.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MST /1 AM CST/ TONIGHT TO 6 PM
MST /7 PM CST/ FRIDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-044-046-047-049-
077.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
SDZ024-028.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR SDZ027-029-030-041-042-074>076.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WYZ060.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
WYZ057.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR WYZ054>056-058-059.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...HELGESON
AVIATION...HATCH
FIRE WEATHER...HELGESON
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