883
FXUS63 KUNR 152107
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
207 PM MST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY
-SOME SNOW EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WITH A FEW INCHES
POSSIBLE
-SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON THE SD PLAINS, ESP TOWARD CENTRAL SD
WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
-A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
-WIND CHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT BELOW ZERO (0 TO -25F) FOR MANY
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MST THU JAN 15 2026
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE IN THE PERIOD WITH LONG
TRAJECTORY LONGITUDINAL FLOW EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FA WILL
REMAIN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK,
UNDER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPS, WINDY WEATHER,
AND NOT MUCH PRECIP. POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT AND JET STREAK SETTLING SOUTH
INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING.
A ROUND OF JET STREAK FORCED RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONT, WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT FROM THE PRECIP. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
WINDS. STRONG LINKED FLOW WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A LONG
DURATION OF STRONG WINDS STILL ON TRACK. MIXED OUT PROFILES WITH
A CAA REGIME WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO MIX DOWN, WITH 60 TO 75 KNOT
FLOW A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE GROUND. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND
GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 MPH AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE STRONGEST OF THE
WINDS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN SD, AND THIS IS WHERE THE
POTENTIAL FOR 75+ MPH WINDS WILL BE THE HIGHEST, ESP ON THE PLAINS
EAST OF THE BH WHERE FLOW WILL ACCELERATE AROUND THE BH. SOME
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OF THE WIND CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SE BH WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SETUP FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT,
INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 75 MPH THERE. WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A DOWNTREND BY EVENING. OTHER
THAN SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT, UPSLOPE SNOW
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH AT
MOST A 2-4 INCHES EXPECTED PRIMARILY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NW SD INTO SCENTRAL SD
TONIGHT AND PERSIST OFF AND ON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG WIND AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LINEAR
CONVECTIVE STREAKS WITH BANDED SNOWFALL. EXPECTING AT MOST AN INCH
OF LOCALIZED ACCUMS WHERE BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER A GIVEN
AREA. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW IN THOSE
AREAS. MUCH COLDER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND ESP BY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
(OR COLDER) RESPECTIVELY. A SECONDARY IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY BRING AN UPTICK OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST BRIEFLY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY, SUPPORTING GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN. ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES BRINGING
FLUCTUATING TEMPS AND BREEZY WEATHER. HOWEVER, NO SIG PRECIP
EXPECTED ATTM.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST THU JAN 15 2026
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE WINDS
WERE GENERALLY FROM 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND
40KTS THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS AND GUSTS
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT SURFACE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM 30 TO 40KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS FROM 45
TO 65KTS OR HIGHER FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD PEAK AT
40-70KT AFTER 16/06Z ON THE OPEN PLAINS - ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN
SD. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN/NEAR THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE SNOW. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SDZ001-002-
012-013-025-026-031-072-073-078.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MST /1 AM CST/ TONIGHT TO 6 PM
MST /7 PM CST/ FRIDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-044-046-047-049-
077.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
SDZ024-028.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST FRIDAY FOR SDZ027-029-030-041-
042-074>076.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WYZ060.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
WYZ057.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ054>056-058-059.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...HATCH
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