590
FXUS63 KUNR 161740
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1040 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 60-80 MPH WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TODAY, DIMINISHING TONIGHT
- UPSLOPE-ENHANCED SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WITH
BLOWING SNOW. SOME SNOW ON THE PLAINS WITH BLOWING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL SD WHERE 1-2" MAY FALL
- WIND CHILLS TONIGHT ZERO TO -30F
- ANOTHER HEADLINEABLE WIND EVENT SHAPING UP FOR SUNDAY
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD DEEP LOW OVER ON WITH FIRST COLD FRONT
WELL INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SECONDARY FRONT GATHERING
MOMENTUM OVER ND/EASTERN MT. WATER VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW OVER
WESTERN ON WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP DEPICTED PATCHY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES OVER THE CWA WITH SOME UPSLOPE PULSING OVER THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. EFFECTS OF ONGOING WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND
EVENT THE MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST.
THROUGH TONIGHT, ON UPPER LOW/TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD AS
ASSOCIATED DEEP UPPER LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS. IT WILL PUSH A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING, TIGHTENING THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER, INCREASING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC COLD AIR
ADVECTION, AND WRINGING OUT 40-70KT 0-2KM BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
CURRENT EXTENT OF HIGH WIND WARNINGS (60-80 MPH GUSTS) LOOKS GOOD,
BUT DID EXTEND SOUTHWESTERN SD BY A COUPLE OF HOURS AND LEFT
NORTHWESTERN UNTIL MIDNIGHT BASED ON LATEST FORECAST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND HREF GUIDANCE. FROUDE NUMBERS (>1) REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOW (1 TO LOCALLY 4" TODAY) FOR THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS, BUT 0-2KM RH VALUES RAPIDLY DROP LATER THIS MORNING.
BEST SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/FORCING WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA TODAY,
BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BIT MORE SNOW FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL SD
(1- 2"). EXPECT BLOWING SNOW WHERE SNOW IS FALLING OR HAS
ACCUMULATED WITH GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES (<1 MILE) AT TIMES,
WHICH CONTINUES TO BE INCLUDED IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING PRODUCTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE, BUT COMBINATION OF WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO +10F TO -5F WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FROM ZERO TO -30F (NORTHWEST SD). -30F IS IN COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
TERRITORY FOR FAR NORTHWEST SD, SO HEADLINES FOR THE WIND CHILLS
MAY NEEDED ON THE DAY SHIFT FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR SATURDAY, A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS DON'T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY, BUT
THEY AREN'T FAR OFF (ECMWF EFI 70-90TH PERCENTILE). MORE WIND
HEADLINES LIKELY.
LOOKING TO NEXT WEEK, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH A
SERIES OF MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
OSCILLATING TEMPERATURES AND LOW CONFIDENCE PER 15-25F SPREADS
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40-70KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY FALL OFF TO 25 TO
45KTS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM
K2WX- KRAP IN NORTHWESTERN SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR BLOWING SNOW, PARTICULARLY OVER/NEAR THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND FROM KD07-KICR. LIMITED SNOW FOR THE TAFS
SITES SHOULD KEEP IMPACTS MINIMAL. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR THOUGH PERIODS OF BROKEN CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE
3500-4000FT AGL WILL OCCUR. OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TODAY (60-80 MPH WIND GUSTS), DIMINISHING
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION (1-4" SNOW)
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE-ENHANCEMENT.
1-2" MAY FALL OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL SD. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH VERY DRY AIR. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SATURDAY
FROM 10-30% ARE LIKELY, DRIEST OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR
WESTERN SD. A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. THE RESULT OF THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BE ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR SDZ001-002-012-
013-025-026-031-072-073-078.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ014-032-043-044-046-047-049-077.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ024-028.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ027-029-030-
041-042-074>076.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR WYZ060.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ054>056-058-
059.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ057.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...HELGESON
AVIATION...HATCH
FIRE WEATHER...HELGESON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page