243
FXUS63 KUNR 162046
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
146 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
-EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL
-WIND CHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT BELOW ZERO (0 TO -20F) FOR MANY, WITH
VALUES AS LOW AS 30 BELOW IN NW SD
-MORE WIND ON SUNDAY WITH THE ACTIVE CLIPPER PATTERN CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE IN THE PERIOD WITH LONG
TRAJECTORY LONGITUDINAL FLOW EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FA WILL
REMAIN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK,
UNDER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPS, WINDY WEATHER,
ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH PRECIP. VERY STRONG LINKED FLOW CURRENTLY
SUPPORTING 70+ MPH WINDS WITH A FEW 80 MPH GUST REPORTS EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND TOWARD CENTRAL SD WITH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TROUGH EVENING. A BACKSIDE IMPULSE
WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED WITH
THIS IMPULSE, GENERALLY A FEW TENTHS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO
THE EVENING, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
DEEPEST MIXING AND STRONGEST FLOW. COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO, WARMEST IN THE FAR WEST.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE BELOW ZERO AT NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS, WITH THE
COLDEST VALUES IN THE NW SD AND FAR EASTERN SCENTRAL SD. BOTH
LOCATIONS WILL FLIRT WITH ADV NUMBERS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO, BUT
GIVEN ISOLATED COVERAGE AND LIMITED DURATION, HAVE PASSED ON
HEADLINES. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
TOMORROW, SUPPORTING WAA ACROSS THE WESTERN FA. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
BE REACH JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH. NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE IS
HIGHLY LIMITED, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS SUNDAY MORNING WHERE AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS WITH ANOTHER
ROUND TO 50 TO 70 MPH WINDS EXPECTED, STRONGEST ACROSS NW SD AND
THE PLAINS JUST EAST OF THE BH. WILL DEFER HEADLINES TO THE MID
SHIFT GIVEN ONGOING WIND EVENT. OTHERWISE, ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES BRINGING
FLUCTUATING TEMPS AND BREEZY WEATHER. HOWEVER, NO SIG PRECIP
EXPECTED ATTM.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40-70KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY FALL OFF TO 25 TO
45KTS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM
K2WX- KRAP IN NORTHWESTERN SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR BLOWING SNOW, PARTICULARLY OVER/NEAR THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND FROM KD07-KICR. LIMITED SNOW FOR THE TAFS
SITES SHOULD KEEP IMPACTS MINIMAL. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR THOUGH PERIODS OF BROKEN CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE
3500-4000FT AGL WILL OCCUR. OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 144 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH VERY DRY AIR. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SATURDAY FROM 10-30% ARE EXPECTED, DRIEST
OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR WESTERN SD. A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN
MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE RESULT OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL BE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR SDZ001-002-012-
013-025-026-031-072-073-078.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ014-024-028-032-043-044-046-047-049-077.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ027-029-030-
041-042-074>076.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR WYZ060.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ054>059.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...HATCH
FIRE WEATHER...JC
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