337
FXUS63 KUNR 302107
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
207 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BLACK HILLS
AREA.
- VERY COLD TONIGHT OVER NORTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE
WIND CHILLS COULD DROP TO 10 TO 20 BELOW.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIP MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH SNOW CHANGING OVER TO A FREEZING RAIN.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO BE REPORTED AT MOST BH ASOS/AWOS STATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS GOING FORWARD ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NONE/NEGLIGIBLE AS INTENSITY HAS SLIPPED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO WANE AS THE JET STREAK
IN THE AREA CONTINUES SOUTH AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WRAPS UP.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A TROF DIGGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW JUST WEST OF THE BLACK
HILLS AND REINFORCING THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS. A NOTEWORTHY TEMPERATURE GRADIENT HAD DEVELOPED AS A
RESULT WITH GILLETTE READING 43F AS OF 1 PM AND WINNER AND FAITH
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AT 9F. THIS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST WYOMING HOLDING ONTO 20S
WHILE TEMPS FALL TO NEAR OR JUST-BELOW-ZERO IN CENTRAL SD BY
SATURDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL AS LOW AS TWENTY
BELOW.
A SYSTEM ORIGINATING IN THE PACIFIC WILL RIDE THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER ON SATURDAY, PULLING MILD MARITIME AIR ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR A PLEASANT WEEK AHEAD. BUT THAT WARMER
AIR WILL COME AT A COST. THE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT'S LEADING EDGE
IS LIKELY TO FALL FIRST AS SNOW, BUT AS THE WARM NOSE PUSHES IN
ABOVE 2KFT, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MELT SOME OF THE HYDROMETEORS
AT LEAST MOMENTARILY. SOME MAY REFREEZE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND
(SLEET) AND SOME MAY REFREEZE UPON IMPACT (FREEZING RAIN). MANY
LOCATIONS MAY SEE AN HOUR OF SNOW (50%) BEFORE AN HOUR OF SLEET
(20%) OR FREEZING RAIN (50%). CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A DUSTING
OF SNOW AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ICE, PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-90.
HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOME SIGNAL THAT ICING MAY CONTINUE FARTHER SOUTH INTO
TODD/TRIPP COUNTIES. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY THERE
AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW, BUT WILL MONITOR. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
BEGIN AROUND 2AM TONIGHT IN THE WEST AND END BY 2PM IN THE CWA'S
EASTERN COUNTIES.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ENVELOPS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH EC/GFS MEMBERS
SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PATTERN THAT IS EVOCATIVE OF A
REX BLOCK. NEITHER FORECAST SYSTEM KEEPS THE BLOCK IN PLACE, BUT
WERE THAT TO HAPPEN, THIS AREA COULD BE IN FOR A LONGER STRETCH OF
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. AS IT STANDS, THE RIDGE IS *JUST* NORTHEAST
ENOUGH TO LET WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA GET A TASTE OF THE SPRING-LIKE
TEMPERATURES SUCH A FEATURE CAN BRING. BUT BEING SO CLOSE TO ITS
MARGINS LEAVES CONFIDENCE LOWER. FOR EXAMPLE, A SHORTWAVE RIDING
THROUGH ON TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE (20-40%) OF MIXED PRECIP
AND A BRIEF HICCUP IN OUR WARMING TREND. A STRONGER WAVE COULD
PUSH THIS AREA OUT FROM UNDER THE COMFORTING TEMPS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING.
REGARDLESS, THE FORECAST REMAINS WARM AFTER TONIGHT WITH A FEW 60S
FORECAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
LOW CLOUDS, AND LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN SD INTO
THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO TREND UPWARD MOST PLACES BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHIFTS INTO NEBRASKA. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM MST SATURDAY FOR
SDZ001-002-012>014-032-072-073-078.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ024.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ057.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...15
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