356
FXUS63 KUNR 311728
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1028 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY
WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.01+" ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90.
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SD AND
NORTHEASTERN WY WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SD.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO FALL IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH SNOW MOST COMMON ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND FREEZING RAIN
DISPLACED ABOUT ONE COUNTY FARTHER WEST. WARMER AIR PUSHING IN
FROM THE WEST HAS WARMED TEMPS INTO THE 30S IN FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH MID-40S ALREADY REPORTED IN EASTERN WYOMING. THIS HAS
ALLOWED ALL BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN HILLS TO
SEE PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS. WILL KEEP THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW WITH FREEZING RAIN STILL FALLING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MEADE COUNTY PLAINS AND POINTS EAST. MAY CANCEL
SOME OF THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEFORE 2 PM IF/WHEN PRECIP CHANGES OVER ENTIRELY TO RAIN.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN MT/WY INTO THE DAKOTAS. RECENT KUDX SCANS ARE
PICKING UP SOME WEAK REFLECTIVITY OVER NORTHWESTERN
SD/NORTHEASTERN WY BUT LOOKING AT THE WEBCAMS IN THE AREA, NOT
SEEING ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY,
DISPLACING THE ARCTIC AIRMASS FURTHER EAST AND BRINGING WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION. LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AS THE PRECIP
MOVES THROUGH BUT WARMING AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. AREAS IN NORTHWESTERN SD
COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN WITH AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-90 SEEING UP TO 0.01" OR MORE OF ICE ACCUMULATION (50-90%
PROBS PER HREF GRAND ENSEMBLE). A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHWESTERN SD
NEAR THE ND BORDER COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" (30-50% PROBS
PER HREF). THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD TO PICK UP >0.01" (40- 60% PER HREF) BUT DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXPAND THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY
TO COVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH ACROSS
THE BLACK HILLS FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN SNOW AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS COULD PICK UP AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.
WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 40-45KT WINDS AT H85-H80 TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SD. SOME
SPOTS MAY SEE GUSTS OF UP TO 45MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN SD.
UPPER RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY WITH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS REMAINING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE
PUSHED FURTHER EASTWARD INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. HIGHS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THIS ZONE SETS
UP, THUS HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. GENERALLY THOUGH, IT'S LOOKING LIKE WE'LL BE
SEEING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (AROUND 10-20F ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY INTO MOST OF WESTERN
SD AND COOLER TEMPS TOWARDS CENTRAL SD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD AND THE BLACK HILLS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS FAR, NOT LOOKING LIKE WE'LL SEE TOO
MUCH OUT OF THIS EVENT IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND AN EXITING CLIPPER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING QUICKLY TO ABOVE FREEZING, SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ON THE PLAINS WITH
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN THE BLACK HILLS WHERE ISOLD MVFR CIGS MAY
OCCUR. OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFT
01/00Z.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ001-
002-012>014-032-072-073-078.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...NICOLAISEN
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...HINTZ
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