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FXUS63 KUNR 011746
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1046 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SD TONIGHT.
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SD
MONDAY
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT
WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
A DRY AND COOL NIGHT HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION WITH OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR, SAVE FOR A THIN VEIL OF HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN SD.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SOME
BREEZIER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN SD
WHERE SOME STATIONS ARE REPORTING GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. AT THE
UPPER LEVELS, RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN US WHILE A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN US. THE NORTHERN PLAINS SITS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER
MN/ND.
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WESTERN US RIDGE THROUGH THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS TOWARDS CENTRAL SD. ARCTIC HIGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATER TODAY WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
CWA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO EAST- SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. LIGHT,
UPSLOPE WINDS AND ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO CREST THE RIDGE AND DIVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY. ATTENDANT SFC FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS BACK TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK 3 HR
PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3 MB COULD SUPPORT GUSTS OF 40+ MPH OVER
NORTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD (40-60% PROBS PER NBM)
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES, MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
EAST OF THE CWA, WHICH SHOULD KEEP US MOSTLY DRY. CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIP INCREASE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE
ZIPS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ARE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP OVER WESTERN SD WITH RAIN FALLING OVER
THE PLAINS AND SNOW OVER THE BLACK HILLS. QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS LIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING TO SIT
OVER THE WESTERN US AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINING UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW. SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WHICH WILL
POSE A CHALLENGE FOR FORECAST HIGHS IN THE FAR EASTERN REACHES OF
OUR CWA. HOWEVER, GENERALLY EXPECTING TEMPERATURES 10-15F ABOVE
AVERAGE AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD
THROUGH THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS
BETWEEN 02/10Z AND 02/14Z, RESULTING IN LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF PERIOD
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...HINTZ
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