695
FXUS63 KUNR 031011
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
311 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS TODAY WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR MOST SPOTS
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN MT/SOUTHERN AB.
CLOSER TO HOME, NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY DEPICTS AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG
MENTION TO THE FORECAST FOR NORTHWESTERN SD AFTER LOOKING AT
WEBCAMS AND AIRPORT OBS IN THE AREA. WHILE THE LOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG.
MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION TODAY. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND MODEST FORCING WILL SUPPORT
LIGHT PRECIP OVER MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD. PRECIP
SHOULD MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW TO FALL. AS WE WARM UP THROUGH THE DAY, SNOW WILL
TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLAINS BUT
THE BLACK HILLS SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE MOIST,
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS. IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH SNOW, MODELS HAVE COME DOWN A BIT ON
THE QPF AND THUS THE SNOW TOTALS. IN ADDITION, THIS SNOW WILL BE
FALLING DURING THE DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. THEREFORE HAVE KNOCKED DOWN SNOW TOTALS
SLIGHTLY. MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST AN
INCH OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING UP TO 3 TO 5
INCHES. GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS,
OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
AFTER TODAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WEATHER OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE 10-20F
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TOWARDS CENTRAL SD.
THURSDAY'S LOOKING TO BE PARTICULARLY WARM WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MST MON FEB 2 2026
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM SW ND THROUGH SOUTH-
CENTRAL SD WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN LOW CLOUDS WITH
SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY PUSHING
WESTWARD WITH A LOW CHANCE OF IMPACTING KRAP, ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT
THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THE 06Z TAFS.
AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH NE WY AND NW SD AFTER 12Z,
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS NW SD. LINGERING IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SD NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...SE
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