189
FXUS63 KUNR 031728
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1028 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS TODAY WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR MOST SPOTS
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN MT/SOUTHERN AB.
CLOSER TO HOME, NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY DEPICTS AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG
MENTION TO THE FORECAST FOR NORTHWESTERN SD AFTER LOOKING AT
WEBCAMS AND AIRPORT OBS IN THE AREA. WHILE THE LOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG.
MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION TODAY. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND MODEST FORCING WILL SUPPORT
LIGHT PRECIP OVER MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD. PRECIP
SHOULD MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW TO FALL. AS WE WARM UP THROUGH THE DAY, SNOW WILL
TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLAINS BUT
THE BLACK HILLS SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE MOIST,
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS. IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH SNOW, MODELS HAVE COME DOWN A BIT ON
THE QPF AND THUS THE SNOW TOTALS. IN ADDITION, THIS SNOW WILL BE
FALLING DURING THE DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. THEREFORE HAVE KNOCKED DOWN SNOW TOTALS
SLIGHTLY. MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST AN
INCH OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING UP TO 3 TO 5
INCHES. GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS,
OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
AFTER TODAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WEATHER OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE 10-20F
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TOWARDS CENTRAL SD.
THURSDAY'S LOOKING TO BE PARTICULARLY WARM WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
AREAS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG/EAST OF A K2WX-KVTN LINE WILL
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON. OVER NORTHEASTERN WY/FAR WESTERN SD, A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
IN/NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER, DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP THE
PROBABILITY OF LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR KRAP LOW. ADDITIONAL
IFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM K2WX-
KICR AFTER 04/06Z AS AN AREA OF STRATUS/POTENTIAL FOG MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...HELGESON
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