922
FXUS63 KUNR 041053
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
353 AM MST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES (25-35 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE) ON
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING HIGHS
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST WED FEB 4 2026
CURRENT NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER
NORTHEASTERN WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. A BANK OF LOW CLOUDS
DELINEATES THE EDGE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY CREPT SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SO
FAR, CURRENT AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS ARE INDICATING THAT
IF THERE IS ANY FOG, IT ISN'T VERY WIDESPREAD.
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. IT CERTAINLY WON'T
FEEL LIKE EARLY FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 50S TO LOW
60S (THE AVERAGE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS IN THE MID 30S).
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE INTO
THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS AND
NORTHEASTERN WY.
THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER AS STRONG THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS MT INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY PLAINS WILL EASILY REACH 25 TO
30+ DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MANY AREAS
ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S WITH THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 70 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO WESTERLY,
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. COULD SEE DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS BROKEN IN
DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY (67 IN 1963) AND AT THE RAPID CITY AIRPORT (63
IN 2024).
COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY (HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 50S INSTEAD OF THE 60S). THE UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND UNSETTLED. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO MODERATING TEMPS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN FROM ND AND SLIDE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
BLACK HILLS. THIS AREA MAY INCLUDE PATCHY FOG WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY. VFR IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED WEST TO EAST WED
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...13
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