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FXUS63 KUNR 050427
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
927 PM MST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES (25-35 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE) ON
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING HIGHS
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST WED FEB 4 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
DUE TO THE CONSTRICTED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES, THE VENTURI
EFFECT HAS LEAD TO FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. OUR 18Z
BALLOON ENCOUNTERED 50 KNOT WINDS AT H5 AND SPEEDS OVER 100 KNOTS
BY THE TIME THE BALLOON GOT TO H2. THE LOW CLOUDS (150 FT AGL)
OVER CENTRAL SD CONTINUE TO RETREAT EAST, LEAVING SUNSHINE
FILTERING THROUGH WIDESPREAD HIGH CIRRUS. TEMPS ARE PRIMARILY IN
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. WINNER IS RELEGATED TO THE LOWER 30S UNDER
THE OVERCAST SKIES.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
SKIES BECOME INCREASINGLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH WESTERLY WINDS
REMAINING 10-20 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT, FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. EXPECT LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID-30S. FOOTHILLS
LOCATIONS MAY HOLD ON TO 40F, WHICH WOULD SET A NEW WARM LOW TEMP
MARK FOR DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY (39 | 2009). THE AIRPORT'S FORECAST
LOW OF 35 WOULD ALSO SET A NEW MARK (34 | 1954).
MORNING TEMPS GIVE A HEAD START FOR ATTEMPTS AT SETTING AFTERNOON
RECORDS, TOO. AS THE H5 RIDGE NOSES EAST AND OVER THE BLACK
HILLS, TEMPS WILL PEAK IN THE 60S OVER RANCH COUNTRY WITH 50S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD PUSH EASTERN FOOTHILL
THERMOMETERS CLOSE TO 70F AND RECORDS.
STANDING RECORDS
RC DTOWN 67 | 1963
RC AIRPORT 63 | 2024
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY, THE WEEKEND, AND INTO NEXT WEEK
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FALL SHY OF THE HIGH BAR SET BY THURSDAY
- AT LEAST ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.
FOR FRIDAY, EASTERN COUNTIES WILL LOSE ABOUT 20 DEGREES VS ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES FOR THE FOOTHILLS. TEMPS IN NE WYOMING SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY UNCHANGED AS THE COOLER AIR WON'T MAKE IT THAT FAR WEST.
WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE VIBE A PLEASANT ONE.
SATURDAY'S NUMBERS BEGIN CREEPING UP AGAIN WITH MORE 60S IN SD
DESPITE THE FORECAST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
THE MILD TEMPERATURES HOLD UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN THE PATTERN CHANGES.
A CUT-OFF LOW CRASHES THE PACIFIC COAST AND LEAVES THE UNR CWA IN
A MORE ZONAL FLOW THAT SHOULD BRING TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS
AND BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
FROM THIS VANTAGE LOOK LIKE EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN A PIECE OF ENERGY
IS PROGGED TO BE EJECTED FROM THE APPROACHING TROF. CURRENT
FORECAST SUGGESTS P-TYPES WILL BE DETERMINED BY TIMING. RAIN AND
SNOW ARE BOTH POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 927 PM MST WED FEB 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...DYE
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