792
FXUS63 KUNR 050524
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1024 PM MST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES (25-35 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE) ON
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING HIGHS
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND
- COLDER AND UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST WED FEB 4 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A REX BLOCK ACROSS
THE PAC COAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. EXTENSIVE WARM AIR IS ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/MONTANA INTO THE CWA.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE CHEYENNE RIVER
VALLEY, CONTINUING SOUTHEASTWARD. LOTS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT
WILL BRING TO THE REGION WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE
WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE BLACK HILLS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS WHERE DOWNSLOPING WILL RESULT IN UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SEVERAL DAILY MAX TEMP RECORDS
WILL BE TIED OR BROKEN TOMORROW. KUNR'S RECORD IS 67 (1963) AND KRAP
IS 63 (1963/2024). THE NBM DETEMINISTIC SEEMS TOO LOW (MID TO UPPER
60S), ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 25-75TH PERCENTILE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
HILLS IS 70-73. WENT WITH NBM 50PCT. BREEZY NW WINDS, WITH GUSTS UP
35-40 MPH, ARE EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90 AND
ALSO DOWN BY SW SD. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THU EVENING,
BUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVERNIGHT NEAR THE
SD/WY BORDER. MAX TEMPS OVER WESTERN SD ON SATURDAY WILL BE 15-20F
COOLER THAN THURSDAY, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NE WY, HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE 60S,
ESPECIALLY AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS. THIS
WILL BRING COLDER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
SNOW. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECM/AIFS ALL SHOW LITTLE SNOWFALL
ACORSS THE FORECAST AREA, BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
POOR.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST WED FEB 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LLWS (40KT) IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS BEFORE 16Z.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...13
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page