964
FXUS63 KUNR 051712
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1012 AM MST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES (25-35 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE) ON
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING HIGHS
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND
- COLDER AND UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST WED FEB 4 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A REX BLOCK ACROSS
THE PAC COAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. EXTENSIVE WARM AIR IS ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/MONTANA INTO THE CWA.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE CHEYENNE RIVER
VALLEY, CONTINUING SOUTHEASTWARD. LOTS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT
WILL BRING TO THE REGION WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE
WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE BLACK HILLS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS WHERE DOWNSLOPING WILL RESULT IN UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SEVERAL DAILY MAX TEMP RECORDS
WILL BE TIED OR BROKEN TOMORROW. KUNR'S RECORD IS 67 (1963) AND KRAP
IS 63 (1963/2024). THE NBM DETERMINISTIC SEEMS TOO LOW (MID TO
UPPER 60S), ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 25-75TH PERCENTILE FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE HILLS IS 70-73. WENT WITH NBM 50PCT. BREEZY NW WINDS, WITH
GUSTS UP 35-40 MPH, ARE EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-90 AND ALSO DOWN BY SW SD. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THU EVENING, BUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVERNIGHT NEAR THE SD/WY BORDER. MAX TEMPS OVER WESTERN SD ON
SATURDAY WILL BE 15-20F COOLER THAN THURSDAY, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NE WY, HIGHS WILL
AGAIN REACH THE 60S, ESPECIALLY AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH. WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL BRING COLDER, MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SNOW. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECM/AIFS ALL SHOW LITTLE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...13
AVIATION...SE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page