683
FXUS63 KUNR 061117
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
417 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FLOW MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MST THU FEB 5 2026
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIDING ONTO THE
WESTERN SD PLAINS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT PER 00Z KUNR
SOUNDING, BUT T/TD SPREADS DIMINISH RAPIDLY BEHIND IT OVER ND
EVIDENCED BY LOW CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF ND PER
NIGHTTIME PHYSICS RGB. WATER VAPOUR LOOP HAD HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST.
REST OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BACK DOOR FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH LOW CLOUDS SLIPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST
REACHES OF THE CWA PER EASTERLY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
DON'T THINK STRATUS WILL MAKE IT TO THE BLACK HILLS, BUT IF THE
CLOUDS HANG AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, WEAK HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH WARM FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE PEAKS
SUNDAY LEADING TO TEMPERATURES 20-30F ABOVE NORMAL WITH 70-80TH
PERCENTILE ECMWF EFI MAXT VALUES.
UPPER PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE UNORGANIZED WITH PSEUDO-SPLIT
FLOW DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK AS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AND COLD
FRONTS MOVES THROUGH. MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED, BUT
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE SOME SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING AND AMOUNTS, UNSURPRISINGLY, AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE
GIVEN MARGINAL COLD TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL SD, MOSTLY ALONG/EAST OF A LINE
FROM K2WX TO KICR THROUGH 18Z. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE
VSBY ACROSS NW SD. THE CHANCE OF THE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
REACHING THE KRAP IS LOW. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...HELGESON
AVIATION...SMITH
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