676
FNUS73 KUNR 162124
FWSUNR
SPOT FORECAST FOR GREY ROCKS FIRE...SDWF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
224 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1600 MST ON FEBRUARY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT TIMES DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES, DRY AIR, AND GUSTY WINDS.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST TUESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
AROUND 54F AND HUMIDITY DROPPING TO AROUND 22 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS AROUND 17 MPH POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT, EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE EVENING WITH LIGHTER WIND
GUSTS, GUSTS OF 15 MPH POSSIBLE. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR, ONLY
CLIMBING UP TO AROUND 48 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURE WILL DIP TO
THE MID 30S.
TUESDAY, A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST, DUE TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GOOD MIXING WILL BRING
STRONG WEST WINDS BEGINNING AROUND 9 TO 10 A.M. AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS TIMEFRAME.
HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW 50S IS EXPECTED WITH RH DROPPING TO THE LOW 20S.
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING
IS POSSIBLE. WETTING RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
TUESDAY EVENING (AROUND 4 TO 6 P.M.), A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH,
BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT, RESULTING IN A COOLING TREND AND
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MID-WEEK.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MIN HUMIDITY........22 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
17 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 TO 2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MST) 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........59 43
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0
TEMP............53 49
RH..............22 26
20 FT WIND DIR..SW S
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.17 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.8 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW S
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 12
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35.
MAX HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 13 MPH OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 TO 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........31 18 19 31 23 24 20 23 19 14 19 23
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............47 45 41 41 41 40 39 39 37 38 38 37
RH..............28 32 37 39 39 41 42 44 48 46 44 46
20 FT WIND DIR..S SE SE S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6
20 FT WIND GUST.12 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 12 12 6 6
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SE S S S S S S SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 12 13 14 16 17 17 16 16 16 16 17
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MIN HUMIDITY........23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 26 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 20 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 TO 9500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH BECOMING WEST AND
INCREASING TO 60 TO 65 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD INCREASING TO EXCELLENT IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TIME (MST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........41 48 59 53 37 71 43 27 41 45 39 49
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... SN SN SN
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............38 41 43 45 46 47 48 49 50 47 45 42
RH..............44 41 41 40 35 32 29 24 23 24 27 30
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..8 9 12 14 18 20 20 20 21 20 20 20
20 FT WIND GUST.15 18 21 26 33 38 39 39 39 39 38 37
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.6 0.7 2.4 3.6 5.0 5.9 7.7 9.5 7.9 6.3 4.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 22 26 36 46 55 58 59 58 60 61 61
FORECASTER...CS
REQUESTED BY...JAMES BACHELOR
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2602810.1/UNR
.DELDT 02/16/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JAMES.BACHELOR@STATE.SD.US
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