876
FNUS73 KUNR 171147
FWSUNR
SPOT FORECAST FOR GREY ROCKS FIRE...SDWF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
447 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0615 MST ON FEBRUARY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST
THIS EVENING...
DISCUSSION
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
OVER THE SPOT AREA. MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
AROUND 49F AND HUMIDITY DROPPING TO THE UPPER TEENS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 9 TO 11 AM THIS MORNING. GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT WETTING RAIN
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA,
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 5
TO 7 PM REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL FINALLY
CALM DOWN OVERNIGHT. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR, ONLY CLIMBING UP
TO AROUND 48 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURE WILL DIP TO THE
MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BIT BETTER FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH A
HIGH AROUND 40 AND RH DROPPING TO THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT DURING THE DAY.
RELIEF IS ANTICIPATED LATE WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW OVER THE REGION. A FEW INCHES OF
SNOWFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SPOT LOCATION LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MIN HUMIDITY........18 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 26 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 20 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7700 TO 8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH BECOMING WEST AND
INCREASING TO 60 TO 65 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD INCREASING TO EXCELLENT IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TIME (MST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........41 50 66 63 56 52 47 38 46 46 47 51
WEATHER COV..... SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... SW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............40 41 42 44 45 47 48 49 49 48 45 42
RH..............44 43 42 41 36 31 27 24 23 20 22 24
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..7 8 10 13 18 21 22 23 24 24 23 22
20 FT WIND GUST.13 15 18 26 32 36 36 38 39 37 40 40
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.6 2.3 3.5 4.7 6.1 7.3 8.2 7.8 7.4 4.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.17 21 26 35 44 51 56 59 61 61 61 58
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 23.
MAX HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 16 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 TO 1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 45 TO 55 MPH DECREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........49 46 48 43 30 25 24 26 27 23 19 18
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............39 37 35 33 32 30 28 26 24 24 24 24
RH..............30 34 35 38 39 39 40 44 48 45 43 45
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..21 18 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 10 9 8
20 FT WIND GUST.35 32 28 29 26 23 22 20 17 16 16 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.51 43 37 36 37 37 33 30 26 24 22 20
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MIN HUMIDITY........26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE EAST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EAST
AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 23 MPH LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 TO 6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
TIME (MST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........27 26 25 29 32 35 41 47 54 60 67 73
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... SN SN SN SN SN
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............25 26 28 31 35 38 39 40 40 38 35 32
RH..............42 40 37 32 28 26 26 26 26 28 30 34
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W SW S SE SE E E
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10
20 FT WIND GUST.13 14 14 14 16 17 18 18 20 21 22 23
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.7 0.7 1.6 2.6 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 4.8 3.1 1.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W SW SW S S E NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 17 17 18 20 21 20 18 17 18 21 23
FORECASTER...AD
REQUESTED BY...JAMES BACHELOR
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2602810.2/UNR
.DELDT 02/17/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JAMES.BACHELOR@STATE.SD.US
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page