484
FNUS73 KUNR 171153
FWSUNR
SPOT FORECAST FOR ANTIHORSE RX UNIT QUEBEC...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
453 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 MST ON FEBRUARY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST
THIS EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST
THIS EVENING...
DISCUSSION
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
OVER THE SPOT AREA. MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
AROUND 50F AND HUMIDITY DROPPING TO THE UPPER TEENS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 9 TO 11 AM THIS MORNING. GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT WETTING RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA,
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 5
TO 7 PM REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL FINALLY
CALM DOWN OVERNIGHT. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR, ONLY CLIMBING UP
TO AROUND 50 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO THE
MID 20S.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BIT BETTER FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH A
HIGH IN THE LOW 40S AND RH DROPPING TO THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WILL
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT DURING THE DAY.
RELIEF IS ANTICIPATED LATE WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW OVER THE REGION. A FEW INCHES OF
SNOWFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SPOT LOCATION LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
MIN HUMIDITY........18 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
28 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO
WEST 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 41 MPH
LATE IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9400 TO 9900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 TO 40
MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING WEST AND
INCREASING TO 45 TO 55 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO 55 TO 60 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD LATE IN THE
MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT LATE IN
THE MORNING.
TIME (MST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........44 55 69 62 56 49 44 37 46 49 53 56
WEATHER COV..... SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... SW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............42 43 44 45 46 48 50 51 51 50 47 44
RH..............41 41 41 41 38 31 27 23 21 18 21 22
20 FT WIND DIR..SE S SW SW SW W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..8 9 12 13 18 22 25 28 29 30 29 26
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 16 22 28 33 35 39 41 41 41 39
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.6 0.6 2.3 4.0 6.2 7.1 7.7 9.9 8.4 7.1 4.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SW SW SW SW W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 16 21 28 36 44 51 55 58 59 58 54
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 24.
MAX HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 37 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 21 MPH OVERNIGHT,
THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 TO 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 45 TO 50 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST AND
DECREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........52 48 47 42 29 26 26 31 29 25 22 22
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....SW SW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............41 38 36 34 33 31 29 28 26 25 24 24
RH..............29 34 35 38 39 41 44 46 48 48 50 50
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W NW W W NW NW NW N
20 FT WIND SPD..25 25 24 23 21 18 17 15 14 12 9 8
20 FT WIND GUST.37 36 33 32 29 25 24 21 20 16 13 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W NW NW NW W W W NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.49 45 39 36 33 31 28 23 20 17 14 12
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LIKELY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.
MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
EAST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 23 MPH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 TO 6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 20 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
SHIFTING TO THE EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
TIME (MST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........34 31 29 32 35 38 45 51 57 64 71 77
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH LKY
WEATHER TYPE.... SN SN SN SN SN
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............25 26 28 31 35 38 41 42 43 42 41 38
RH..............48 44 40 36 33 31 29 29 28 29 29 32
20 FT WIND DIR..N NW NW NW W W SW S S S E E
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 12
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 12 13 15 15 16 17 18 21 23
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.6 1.5 2.4 3.3 4.4 5.5 6.6 4.8 2.9 1.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW W W W W SW SW S E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 9 9 12 14 16 16 16 16 18 22 24
FORECASTER...AD
REQUESTED BY...HAYDEN HOELSCHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2602744.6/UNR
.DELDT 02/17/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL RYAN.HAM@USDA.GOV,TODD.HOOVER@USDA.GOV,HAYDEN.HOELSCHER@USDA.GOV
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