899
FNUS73 KUNR 171250
FWSUNR
SPOT FORECAST FOR WARREN PEAK RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
550 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 MST ON FEBRUARY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY OVER THE SPOT AREA. MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING, HOWEVER NOT AT THE BURN LOCATION.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
AROUND 45F AND HUMIDITY DROPPING TO THE UPPER TEENS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN EARLY MORNING, BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM. GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN IS LOW.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FINALLY
DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL FINALLY CALM DOWN
OVERNIGHT. RH RECOVERY CLIMBS UP TO AROUND 50 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO THE LOW 20S.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BIT BETTER FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH A
HIGH IN THE LOW 30S AND RH DROPPING TO THE LOW 30S. WINDS WILL BE
A BIT BREEZY, BUT LESS SO THAN TUESDAY.
RELIEF IS ANTICIPATED LATE WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW OVER THE REGION. MULTIPLE INCHES OF
SNOWFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SPOT LOCATION LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.
MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 MPH SHIFTING
TO THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO
41 MPH.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 TO 7300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 40 TO 45 MPH INCREASING TO 50 TO 60
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON,
THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 50 MPH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD INCREASING TO EXCELLENT IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TIME (MST) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........45 55 57 57 43 37 38 56 74 81 78
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... SW SW SW SW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............45 45 44 44 44 45 45 45 43 39 36
RH..............35 35 36 35 30 29 28 28 33 42 44
20 FT WIND DIR..S SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..21 22 23 25 25 24 24 23 23 24 24
20 FT WIND GUST.37 39 40 41 40 41 40 39 39 40 37
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.8 2.3 3.7 4.6 5.5 6.2 7.3 5.6 4.9 3.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.37 41 47 52 55 56 56 54 52 49 47
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 22.
MAX HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 37
MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 21 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 TO 700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 40 TO 50 MPH BECOMING WEST 20 TO 25
MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........76 74 64 46 25 16 18 21 17 17 21 22
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....SW SW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............34 33 32 31 29 28 27 25 24 23 22 22
RH..............45 47 45 43 44 42 44 44 45 50 49 49
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W SW
20 FT WIND SPD..24 23 23 23 22 21 20 18 17 15 13 12
20 FT WIND GUST.37 37 32 32 31 29 26 25 24 22 21 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.W NW NW W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.46 46 45 41 38 33 30 28 25 22 20 18
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LIKELY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 33.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
26 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 TO 2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........30 24 18 21 25 28 32 35 38 52 66 80
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH LKY
WEATHER TYPE.... SN SN SN SN SN
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............23 24 25 27 29 31 32 33 33 32 29 25
RH..............47 43 40 37 35 34 34 33 33 34 37 44
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W NW N NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 13 14
20 FT WIND GUST.16 16 16 16 17 20 20 21 21 22 24 26
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.4 0.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W SW SW S E E E NE NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 16 15 15 16 16 16 17 18 21 23 25
FORECASTER...AD
REQUESTED BY...CHAD PORSCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2602391.8/UNR
.DELDT 02/17/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL CHAD.PORSCH@USDA.GOV
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