753
FNUS73 KUNR 181211
FWSUNR
SPOT FORECAST FOR WARREN PEAK RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
511 AM MST WED FEB 18 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 MST ON FEBRUARY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY,
SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
STARTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. RH'S WILL ONLY DROP DOWN TO
ABOUT 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR THE
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SPOT LOCATION. SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 29.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 TO 2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 20
TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MST) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........14 20 22 22 18 20 28 42 60 70 73
WEATHER COV..... SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... SN
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............17 21 26 28 29 29 29 29 28 26 22
RH..............70 56 44 40 40 42 40 40 40 42 47
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W NW N NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 12 13
20 FT WIND GUST.13 12 15 16 17 17 18 20 23 24 25
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.2 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.1 1.3 1.2 0.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W NW NE E E NE NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 12 13 13 15 15 16 17 18 21 23
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN CHANCE OF SNOW
EARLY IN THE EVENING. SNOW LIKELY LATE IN THE
EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 3 ABOVE.
MAX HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.
CWR.................50 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 TO 1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 25 TO 30 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 20
TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........74 80 87 88 90 91 91 91 91 91 91 90
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN
TSTM COV........
CWR.............50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
TEMP............19 17 15 13 12 10 9 7 6 5 4 3
RH..............51 53 58 64 66 69 69 69 69 72 75 75
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE N N N N N N N NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..14 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 13 13
20 FT WIND GUST.25 26 28 26 25 25 24 23 23 22 21 21
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE N N N N NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.24 25 26 26 25 24 23 23 22 22 21 20
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SNOW LIKELY IN
THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE
MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 10 ABOVE.
MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 21 MPH.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 TO 1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........91 92 93 90 87 85 84 83 82 79 77 75
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN
TSTM COV........
CWR.............40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
TEMP............4 4 5 5 5 6 8 10 10 10 9 8
RH..............69 65 62 62 62 62 60 57 60 63 66 69
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..12 12 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.21 21 21 20 20 20 18 18 18 17 16 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.20 20 18 18 17 16 17 17 17 16 15 14
FORECASTER...AD
REQUESTED BY...CHAD PORSCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2602391.9/UNR
.DELDT 02/18/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL CHAD.PORSCH@USDA.GOV
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