858
FXUS63 KUNR 201728
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1028 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW ENDING TONIGHT WITH MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
- COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WARMER (ABOVE AVERAGE) TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 922 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STRONG WAVE OVER NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA/NORTHWESTERN IOWA, A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO,
ANOTHER LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, ANOTHER LOW IN NORTHWEST
ALBERTA, AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
RADAR IS SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA,
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL HAVE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER.
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT, AREAS OF SNOW WILL DIMINISH WITH MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. WINDS WILL DECREASE, BUT CLOUDS LOOK TO
LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK. COLD, ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
FOR FRIDAY, THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL OPEN UP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO COLORADO AS AN UPPER WAVE. AT THE
SAME TIME THE LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL DROP INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND
WEAKEN AS WELL. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE ARCTIC AIR NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 20S. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS, WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA DOWN INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF
COLORADO. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, PUSHING THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THESE FEATURES WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES, AS THE COLDER
AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE LONGER, AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY, SHIFTING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +10C, LEADING TO
SURFACE HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. AN TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MODELS THEN SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND COLD AIR,
ONLY EXPECT A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER,
BUT STILL NEAR AVERAGE, TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SMITH
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page