176
FXUS63 KUNR 211729
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1029 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COMPACT SHORTWAVE MAY BRING PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY, BUT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
- COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND
- WARM FRONT MONDAY BRINGS MILD WEATHER MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT TIMES
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 936 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK COOL FRONT FROM SOUTHERN MT INTO
WESTERN NE WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER TROUGH FROM SK TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE NEAREST COMPACT SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL
MT, WHICH HAD A SMALL AREA OF SNOW PER REGIONAL RADAR LOOP.
DISPOSITION OF THESE FEATURES WILL DRIVE THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT
TERM.
REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST WITH COMPACT MT SHORTWAVE SLIPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA.
MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK LIFT, BUT LIMITED MOISTURE.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME OF THIS SNOW WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE CWA WITH FORECAST FROUDE VALUES SUGGESTING A
TOUCH OF UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. DON'T EXPECT
MUCH ON THE PLAINS GIVEN PAUCITY OF MOISTURE. PROBABILITY OF
>0.05" QPF <20%, SO IMPACTS WILL BE LOW. INTRODUCED LOW POPS TO
ACCOUNT WITH EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE. BEHIND SHORTWAVE, COLD AIR
SLIPS BACK IN AS SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH STRENGTHENS.
SUNDAY, CANADIAN HIGH DOMINATES, BUT RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN THE WEST
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. WARM FRONT
PROPELLED BY UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST MID-WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES WEST/NORTHWEST
WITH A SERIES OF LOW MOISTURE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIPPING THROUGH
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SPREADS INCREASE QUITE A BIT BY FRIDAY
WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER COLD AIR OOZES BACK IN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND OR MILD WEATHER CONTINUES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD THROUGH 21Z, THEN
CONDITIONS BECOME VFR AFTER AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO NEBRASKA.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 936 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MILD WEATHER AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY. DRIER AIR MAY DEVELOP FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER GIVEN INCREASING
TEMPERATURES SPREADS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...HELGESON
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...HELGESON
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