260
FXUS63 KUNR 211851
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1151 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AIR LINGERS THROUGH SUNDAY.
- MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
PERIODIC ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER
LOW IN CENTRAL MANITOBA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
NORTHWEST FLOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD FURTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS ALBERTA WITH A COLD
AIR MASS LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH BROAD, WEAK UPPER LEVEL ASCENT. THIS ASCENT COUPLED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES HAS RESULTED IN SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.
THESE FLURRIES WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS ASCENT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THESE FLURRIES/SHOWERS.
COLD AIR WILL LINGER AS CANADIAN HIGH SETTLES THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN
AND MANITOBA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL
SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW
ADVECTS MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. PREDICTABILITY AND CONFIDENCE BREAKS DOWN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME
WITH NEAR DAILY SHORTWAVES DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A CLIPPER PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION, ALTHOUGH TOTAL PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIGHT
(<0.1"; MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY) WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX LIKELY
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY GIVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURE
SPREADS REMAIN HIGH LATE WEEK GIVEN SENSITIVITY TO THE LOCATION OF
THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EXTENT OF COLD AIR INTRUSION
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL, EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH COLDER AIR MORE LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD THROUGH 21Z, THEN
CONDITIONS BECOME VFR AFTER AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO NEBRASKA.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SE
AVIATION...15
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