871
FXUS63 KUNR 221721
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1021 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE CHILLY DAY SUNDAY
- RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN
CHILLIER NEXT WEEKEND
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN BY
NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 947 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD SPRAWLING HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH HAS LOCKED COLD AIR/CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE CWA. WATER VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
ROCKIES, WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SUNDAY, UPPER RIDGES BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST SETTING THE STAGE FOR MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.
MONDAY, UPPER RIDGE HELPS WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE CWA WITH
ROBUST WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
WITH HIGHEST READINGS JUST EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS PER DOWNSLOPE
FLOW.
TUESDAY, LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER AS IT
LOOKS LIKE A GENTLE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIDES THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES AND WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ZIPS BY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN 8-12F
25- 75TH PERCENTILE MAXT TEMPERATURE SPREADS WITH THE MOST
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH FRONT, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF INTO
WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THURSDAY/FRIDAY (WITH SOME VERY DRY AIR) BEFORE A BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH BRINGING A COLD FRONT AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW INTO THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND LOW GIVEN PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...HELGESON
AVIATION...15
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page