945
FXUS63 KUNR 222308
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
408 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN CHILLIER
NEXT WEEKEND
- ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
- LIGHT RAIN/SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN BY THE
WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH TROFING OVER THE EASTERN US. THE NORTHERN PLAINS SITS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CAUSING HIGH
CLOUD COVER OVER THE CWA. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO 20S.
ANOTHER CHILLY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN STORE AS ARCTIC AIR STAYS
OVER THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST SFC
FLOW ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE CWA. TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 50S, WITH DOWNSLOPING CONTRIBUTING TO TEMPS NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS CLIMBING TO THE LOW 60S. RHS WILL DROP INTO THE
20S WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS.
SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP, MAINLY FALLING AS SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND RAIN OVER THE WESTERN SD
PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, PERHAPS
AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE BLACK HILLS. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE A
CHALLENGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE
LITTLE CONSENSUS ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
US. THE WARM TEMPERATURES, DRY AIRMASS, AND BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL LEND TO ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THOUGH THEY ALL SEEM TO FAVOR A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP BACK TO THE REGION. BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL CUT ACROSS THE CWA, WHICH WILL COMPLICATE TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 408 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...SE
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