819
FXUS63 KUNR 231655
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
955 AM MST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN COOLER NEXT
WEEKEND.
- ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- BREEZY WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE WESTERN RIDGE
CENTERED FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA AS
ARCTIC AIR LINGERS OVER THE AREA FOR ONE MORE NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
MONDAY (40S AND 50S).
DEEP UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST WITH ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF THE
US. ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN CANADA WILL EJECT
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN US LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND TURNING UPPER FLOW NORTHWESTERLY
TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVES CLIP THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH
THE FORECAST ARE TUESDAY, CLIPPING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS DRY.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS . WHILE
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS, TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 0.1" FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA.
NBM PROBS OF QPF >0.1 ARE AROUND 20% OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA; WITH HIGHER CHANCES (~50-60%) IN THE BLACK HILLS
AND NE WY).
MILD AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO END THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 AM MST MON FEB 23 2026
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN WY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WY TONIGHT WITH
GUSTS OF UP TO 25KT.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SE
AVIATION...WONG
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