554
FXUS63 KUNR 240355
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
855 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 756 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AS UPPER TROUGH/LOW SITS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
REGION AND MILD RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. 03Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA, WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUD OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
WHILE RADAR HAS SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY (NOT
REACHING THE GROUND) THIS EVENING. CURRENT TEMPERATURES SIT IN
THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO WEST TONIGHT
AS A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK SETS UP OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25KTS POSSIBLE. BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH GUSTS UP TO
35KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY,
GENERALLY OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS,
HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MEAN LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. A BIT STRONGER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY DOWN THE
RIDGE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ONCE AGAIN LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS DISTURBANCE, ALBEIT A BIT MORE THAN TUESDAY'S.
HREF PROBABILITIES OF QPF >= 0.1" RANGE FROM 50 TO 80 PERCENT
OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN WY INTO THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS, WHILE
ELSEWHERE, CHANCES ARE < 40 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PLAY A
ROLE WEDNESDAY AS WARMING OCCURS, GIVING A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES.
BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATION NORTHERN BLACK HILLS REGIONS, WHERE AN INCH OR TWO MAY
BE POSSIBLE.
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DECENT
MIXING OF WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES DROP DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
FOR SOME AREAS AT TIMES. LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND INCREASING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
SOME LOW VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WY
LATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25KT.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...DYE
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