027
FXUS63 KUNR 251101
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
401 AM MST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WEDNESDAY
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
- ANOTHER ROUND OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 946 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO QPF AND POPS BASED OFF THE 00Z MODELS, HOWEVER NO REAL
DIFFERENCE TO THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN AND WYOMING BLACK HILLS, WHERE AN
INCH OR TWO COULD FALL IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ELSEWHERE CAN EXPECT
EITHER RAIN, RAIN/SNOW MIX, OR SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL QPF EXPECTED < 0.1" IN MOST
AREAS, WHILE FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS
COULD SEE 0.1" OR SLIGHTLY MORE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
CURRENT UPPER AIR WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS DEPICTS LARGE-SCALE RIDGING
OVER WESTERN CONUS, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
ALBERTA DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN CA/AZ, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, AND TROUGHING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A NOR'EASTER
OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. ANOTHER SURFACE-LOW IS POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
DOWN THROUGH WESTERN KS. SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUD COVER
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION, WHILE RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME
LIGHT RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST SD WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP REACHING
THE GROUND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY SHOW BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH, AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES, MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS. DUE TO MODEL VARIABILITY, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY FOR
QPF TOTALS. TRENDS CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS >0.10 INCH ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL BLACK HILLS (~45 TO 75
PERCENT CHANCE), WHILE ELSEWHERE AMOUNTS BETWEEN A TRACE AND 0.05
INCHES ARE MORE LIKELY (~70 TO 35 PERCENT, RESPECTIVELY, PER NBM-
CONUS). WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AFTER 16Z, STARTING IN NORTHEAST
WY THEN SPREADING INTO NORTHWESTERN SD, WITH 30 TO 40 MPH WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF COOL IN THE MORNING BEFORE
WARMING INTO THE 40S BY THE AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR
MIXED PRECIP OVER NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWESTERN SD BEFORE SWITCHING
TO MOSTLY RAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATION NORTHERN BLACK HILLS REGIONS, WHERE AN INCH OR TWO
MAY BE POSSIBLE.
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO THE LOW 20S AND UPPER
TEENS FOR SOME AREAS AT TIMES. ANOTHER SHOT AT COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST WED FEB 25 2026
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW (ALL SNOW OVER THE BLACK
HILLS). AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIP
THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS INTO NE WY. BREEZY NW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDS
EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING ALL PLACES.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...DYE
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...JC
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