402
FXUS63 KUNR 251856
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1156 AM MST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY
- ANOTHER ROUND OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM MST WED FEB 25 2026
CURRENT UPPER AIR WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS AS SPLIT-FLOW DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN
CANADA/PNW, TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC
DOWN THROUGH PA AND OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS, AND A SURFACE-
LOW POSITIONED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE RADAR OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND PARTS OF
WESTERN SD. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN RESTRICTED TO THE WY BLACK
HILLS AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS OF SD, WHILE SCATTERED MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN
SD. IN GENERAL, FROM A TRACE TO 0.10 INCH OF MOISTURE HAS CURRENTLY
FALLEN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY SHOW LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S IN NORTH-CENTRAL SD TO LOW 40S IN SOUTHERN SD. WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY AND
WILL BEGIN TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
SWITCHING GEARS TO TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THE SHORTWAVE AND
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS SPLIT-FLOW
BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SD, WITH GUSTS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ACROSS NORTHWEST SD WILL BOTTOM OUT TO THE LOW 20S PERCENT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S RESULTING IN
POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE AREA OF GREATEST FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD (SPECIFICALLY FALL
RIVER AND OGLALA LAKOTA COUNTIES), WHERE RH'S WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
PERCENT, HIGHS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60, LACK OF
WETTING RAIN, DECENT MIXING, AND WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35
MPH. THESE CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY FOR SOUTHWEST SD.
FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN, WITH
RH VALUES BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 15 PERCENT, HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW 60S, A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, AND WIND GUSTS SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. CHANCES FOR GUSTS REACHING OVER
40 MPH FOR NORTHWESTERN SD ARE ARE MODERATE (~30 TO 45 PERCENT)
WHILE CHANCES FOR SOUTHWESTERN SD ARE LOWER (~20 TO 35 PERCENT, VIA
NBM-CONUS). DUE TO THESE CONDITIONS, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
REACH NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST REGION, ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST SD.
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE LEANING TOWARDS MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST WED FEB 25 2026
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY PUSHING EAST OF KRAP AS OF 1720,
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS.
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH 20Z, MAINLY SOUTH OF KRAP AND
IN NW SD. TRANSIENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
NOW THROUGH 20-21Z.
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SHOWERS WAKE, WITH GUSTS 25 TO
35 KNOTS EXPECTED AFTER 19Z AT KGCC AND KRAP.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...SE
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