449
FXUS63 KUNR 260500
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1000 PM MST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY, THEN NEAR-CRITICAL
FRIDAY
- MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 941 PM MST WED FEB 25 2026
04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WARM FRONT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
DIFFUSE LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MT INTO CENTRAL CO. WATER VAPOUR
LOOP HAD SPLIT FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH CWA UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY, SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE BC COAST WILL SLIP
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SPIN
UP A LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING AND THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FORECAST WIND PROFILE
WILL PROMOTE WINDY SPOTS THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWESTERN
SD/FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD. BREEZY SPOTS FOR FRIDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTS AROUND 45MPH FOR NORTHWESTERN SD,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE A LOW
CHANCE OF GUSTS >45MPH, SO WILL FOREGO WIND HEADLINES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE THURSDAY, BUT HIGHS COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC FRIDAY GIVEN EVENTUAL TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
BOUQUET OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE CWA ON 110KT JET
STREAK.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK IMPINGES ON POST
FRONTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN A BAND OF SNOW
THAT WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SD. THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW (30-50% CHANCE >0.1" QPF) WILL BE NEAR THE SD/ND BORDER.
SUNDAY, A WAVE SNEAKS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LEADING TO A BAND OF QPF ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH
WILL MOST LIKELY BE TOO FAR WEST/SOUTH OF THE CWA TO DO MUCH
LOCALLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT
WITH ~15F SPREADS, SO CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE.
NEXT WEEK, LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WARMUP WITH SPLIT
FLOW POTENTIALLY/EVENTUALLY GETTING TOGETHER FOR A SHOT AT SOME
MUCH-NEEDED QPF BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST WED FEB 25 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 941 PM MST WED FEB 25 2026
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES, DRY AIR, AND BREEZY TO GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE JOINT PROBABILITY OF MINRH
<=15%/FREQUENT WIND GUSTS >=25MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST REACHES OF THE CWA IS VERY LOW. THESE PROBABILITIES
RISE TO 30-50% FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST REACHES
OF THE CWA, BUT THE DURATION SHOULD BE SHORT. THE RESULT WILL BE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND NEAR-CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...HELGESON
AVIATION...DYE
FIRE WEATHER...HELGESON
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