181
FXUS63 KUNR 262330
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
430 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY
- ANOTHER ROUND OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
CURRENT UPPER AIR WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS DEPICTS SPLIT-FLOW OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS AND CANADA. A RIDGE IS POSITIONED OVER THE
WEST COAST STRETCHING FROM OR DOWN TO BAJA CALIFORNIA, A BROAD
TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING FROM THE HUDSON
BAY DOWN TO FL, AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WITH A SURFACE-LOW POSITIONED
OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. WV INDICATES A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN SD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SPLIT-FLOW. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS FOCUSED ON THE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE PRESENT TODAY AND FRIDAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY SHOW WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
NORTHWESTERN SD WITH GUSTS REACHING 41 MPH, TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S AND 50S, AND RH VALUES MAINLY IN THE 20S PERCENT RANGE. FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH 0Z,
THIS EVENING, BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND RH VALUES BEGIN
TO RECOVER.
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE SURFACE-LOW WILL SLIDE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN ONTARIO, BRINING WITH IT A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SD, WITH
SOME GUSTY LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTAL SD. WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER NORTHWEST SD WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR >40 MPH OCCURRING MIDDAY (~35 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE, VIA NBM-
CONUS). RH VALUES FOR NORTHWESTERN SD WILL NOT BE AT RED FLAG
WARNING LEVELS DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
HOWEVER, FUELS ARE CURED AND READY TO BURN IF AN IGNITION SOURCE IS
PRESENT. OTHER LOCATIONS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ARE: 1)
SOUTHWESTERN SD WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S, RH VALUES
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT, AND WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH,
AND 2)SOUTH-CENTAL SD WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE HIGH 50S, RH VALUES
IN THE LOW 20S, AND WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. DUE TO
THESE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, A RED FLAG WARNING IS
BEING CONSIDERED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN SD FOR MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION, BRINING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO NORTHWESTERN
AND CENTRAL SD, ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES, INCREASED RH VALUES,
AND WINDS BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY. CURRENT MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER (~30 TO
50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR >1 INCH, VIA NBM-CONUS). DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT, CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SNOW BAND IS
MODERATE.
FOR NEXT WEEK, WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ALONG WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 429 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER 00-02Z ACROSS THE SD PLAINS.
WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER 16-18Z THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS, STRONGEST WINDS FROM KRAP THROUGH NW SD.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 134 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES, DRY AIR, AND BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
AROUND 17 PERCENT, WITH WINDS GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MPH. THIS
COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SDZ322-335.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...SE
FIRE WEATHER...SCHULTZ
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