770
FNUS73 KUNR 092046
FWSUNR
SPOT FORECAST FOR PORCUPINE CREEK FIRE...CC EM & HS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
246 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1500 MDT ON MARCH 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
DISCUSSION
VERY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 50 TO
58 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 1600-1700 HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 1700-1800 HOURS AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH,
ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 2200-2300.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS FALLEN TO AROUND 12-16% THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH 1600 BEFORE RECOVERING THIS EVENING.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE ABOVE 30% AFTER 1700-1800, WITH
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY (~90%) AFTER 0400-0500 TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER 2000-2100 THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 0600 TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
IS EXPECTED TOMORROW (TUESDAY) WITH ~30% CHANCE OF >0.1" OF LIQUID
PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING; CURRENT FORECAST HAS
~0.02-0.1" OF TOTAL LIQUID OVER THE FIRE AREA TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED GIVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY WITH RH ~25% AND
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-16 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS 50 TO 58 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9300 TO 9800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 55 TO 60 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST AND
DECREASING TO AROUND 45 MPH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT.
TIME (MDT) 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........6 10 12
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0
TEMP............68 65 62
RH..............13 14 19
20 FT WIND DIR..WSW W NW
20 FT WIND SPD..28 26 25
20 FT WIND GUST.50 48 40
MIX HGT (KFT)...9.8 7.9 5.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.60 54 45
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 24.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 10 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 14
MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 TO 1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 30 TO 40 MPH DECREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH
OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........15 12 23 37 38 47 44 55 57 63 72 85
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............55 48 43 37 35 32 31 30 29 29 28 27
RH..............28 37 48 61 66 75 78 81 81 78 85 85
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW N N N N N N N NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..23 21 20 17 16 14 13 10 10 9 9 8
20 FT WIND GUST.35 31 29 25 24 21 18 16 15 14 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.1 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW N N N N N N N NE NE NE E
TRANSP WIND SPD.36 31 28 25 23 21 18 16 15 14 14 14
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 17 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
22 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 TO 7100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD INCREASING TO EXCELLENT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........79 80 86 76 84 89 85 85 87 90 90 92
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN
TSTM COV........
CWR.............20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............27 27 25 29 33 35 38 40 41 43 39 37
RH..............85 85 92 81 72 66 62 55 50 47 57 61
20 FT WIND DIR..E SE SE SE SE SE SE S W NW N N
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 12 14 15 16
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 15 15 15 16 17 20 22 24 25
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.1 2.6 3.5 5.3 7.1 5.2 3.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE S SW SW W W NW NW N
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 14 15 15 15 15 16 20 23 26 28 28
FORECASTER...SE
REQUESTED BY...J MITCHELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2605224.0/UNR
.DELDT 03/09/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JMITCHELL@CCFIRE.US
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