715
FXUS63 KUNR 122314
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
514 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN/SNOW THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
CURRENT UPPER AIR MODELS AND WATER VAPOR SHOW SHORTWAVE OVER THE
DAKOTAS, UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS ASSOCIATED LOW OVER WESTERN ND, WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. VERY STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ONGOING, WITH SOME OBSERVED 70 TO 90 MPH GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SIT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
THIS EVENING, DIMINISHING AFTER AROUND 02-03Z. NO REAL CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT HEADLINES FOR TODAY, THOUGH BASED OFF MODELS, THE HIGH
WIND WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A COUPLE HOURS FOR SOME
AREAS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO OUR WINTER EVENT, BEGINNING TONIGHT AND
RUNNING THROUGH SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW ON AND OFF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN A TRACE AND 2 INCHES FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND AREAS
AROUND AND NORTH OF I-90. LARGER CONCERN WILL BE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
PUTTING ADVISORY TO WARNING CRITERIA SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
NBM PROBABILITIES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS > 4 INCHES SIT IN THE
80-95% RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND WYOMING BLACK HILLS, AND IN THE
60 TO 80% RANGE OVER NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD. WSSI PROBABILITIES
FOR MODERATE IMPACTS FROM WINTER WEATHER SIT IN THE 30-60 PERCENT
RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND FOOTHILLS, AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD. WINTER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SD AND THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS, HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO WAIT ON HEADLINES
GIVEN THE CURRENT WIND AND FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ONGOING. TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN POTENTIAL
HEADLINES, AS SOME AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH MAY SEE MORE RAIN,
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, AND UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY A
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AREAS TO REACH INTO THE 80S LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 509 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35KT WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 50KT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN SD THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS AND LCL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13/08Z.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY, ISOLATED
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER PCPN BANDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 129 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
WARM, DRY, AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WX THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING - A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NE WY PLAINS INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. WHILE SOME
AREAS MAY NOT QUITE REACH CRITICAL RH THRESHOLDS (LESS THAN 15%),
VERY STRONG PRE-FRONTAL WINDS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-45 MPH, GUSTING TO 60 TO 70 OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN SD
PLAINS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>078.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ321-322-324>326-329-331>335.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ054>060.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ315-317.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...WONG
FIRE WEATHER...DYE
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