757
FXUS63 KUNR 130428
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1028 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-HEAVY SNOW AND WIND POSSIBLE THIS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
-MUCH COLDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SUB ZERO TEMPS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN NW SD
-WARM AIR RETURNS NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE FAR SW. WEAK
IMPULSES WILL RIDE THE BOUNDARY AND SUPPORT PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE NE THIRD TO HALF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMS OTHER THAN A FEW TENTHS TO MAYBE AN
INCH, MAINLY ON THE GRASS. THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE WITH EACH
IMPULSE WITH WARM AIR AND BREEZY CONDS SHIFTING BACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE FAR SW FA THROUGH SAT, WITH SOME PLACES REACHING THE LOW
60S THERE. MUCH COLDER TO THE NORTHEAST OVER FAR NW SD WHERE 30S
WILL BE COMMON. STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET WILL SHIFT
SE ACROSS THE NW CONUS SAT. STRONG FGEN RESPONSE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM STARTING SAT ACROSS FAR NW SD. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT SOUTH SAT AFTERNOON WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION. LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT WITH A
STRONG FGEN BAND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. MODELS ARE STILL WAVERING ON
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR GIVEN DIFFERENCE IN FRONTAL TIMING AND
LOCATION. GIVEN PERSISTENT SIGNALS FOR SNOW AND WIND ACROSS NW SD,
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH THERE. FURTHER SW OVER THE
NORTHERN BH AND FOOTHILLS, THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
MAY ALLOW FOR DECENT SNOW TOTALS THERE, ESP GIVEN STRONG SATURATED
NNE WINDS. IN ADDITION, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WOULD SUPPORT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, POTENTIALLY MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT,
EVEN IF SUB-WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE
SAT NIGHT, WITH SNOW QUICKLY ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH LINGERING BLOWING SNOW. MUCH COLDER
SUN NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO, COLDEST
WHERE FRESH SNOW FALLS. UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT BACK NE NEXT
WEEK, WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR/LCL IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE BLACK HILLS OVERNIGHT. THE MVFR/LCL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWESTERN SD THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-078.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SDZ012>014-032-072-073.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SDZ024-025.
WY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR WYZ060.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR WYZ057.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...WONG
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