256
FXUS63 KUNR 150350
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
950 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW STILL EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL CREATE
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN WARM AND
DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS QUICK MOVING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
CURRENTLY WITH DIGGING TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN MT/EASTERN
ID. FAIRLY DECENT BAROCLINIC LEAF SHIELD DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, BAROCLINIC ZONE IS
DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST WY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE AND
ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, TEMPS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WHILE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, TEMPS ARE
STRUGGLING INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
RADAR TRENDS CONT TO SHOW INCREASING AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NW
SD, WITH AREA WEBCAMS SHOWING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW VERIFYING RADAR
SIGNATURES. VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE MIGHT BE SOME
MINOR CONVECTIVE COMPONENTS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL, WHICH
ALSO ALIGNS WELL WITH STEEPING LL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT IS SAGGING SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST SD FROM ND.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY, 700HPA LOW CLOSES OFF AND
DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ON THE SOUTHERN BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY, STRENGTHENS
AND MOVES EAST. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, VERY STRONG PRESSURE
RISES FOLLOW WHICH WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING THE NORTHWEST WINDS.
3-HRLY PRESSURE RISES FROM 7-9MB ARE SHOWN IN THE 15/06Z TO 15/12Z
TIME FRAME. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS > 45
MPH BY 12Z SUNDAY IN THE 35%'ISH RANGE, WHILE PROBABILITIES OF
WIND GUSTS > 50 MPH IN THE 20%'ISH RANGE FOR PARTS OF THE BH
FOOTHILLS AND SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. WHILE SNOW TOTALS
STILL APPEAR TO BE TRENDING DOWN SLIGHTLY, THE STRONG WINDS WILL
STILL CREATE VSBY ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ENDED UP
INCREASING OVERNIGHT WINDS A BIT TOWARD THE NBM 75 PERCENTILE
RANGE. IT SEEMS LATELY THAT ACTUAL WINDS HAVE OVERPERFORMED WHAT
THE ACTUAL MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED. WITH THE STRONG CAA ALSO TAKING
PLACE, SNOW RATIOS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 15-20 TO 1, LEADING TO
SOME FLUFFIER SNOW, WHICH WILL BE EASIER TO PICK UP AND BLOW
AROUND. UPSLOPE SNOW CONDITIONS ARE STILL IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHERN BH AND FOOTHILLS, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. OVERALL, WHILE SNOWFALL TOTALS CONT TO TREND
DOWN SLIGHTLY, WITH THE STRONG WINDS, FORECASTED WIND CHILLS BY
SUNDAY MORNING, AND VSBY IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW,
THIS STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY IMPACTFUL STORM.
IT WILL DRY OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND REMAIN GENERALLY DRY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SUB-SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. BUILDING 500HPA RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CARRYING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, WIDESPREAD SNOW, AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR TO IFR (CIGS & VSBY) AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 11-14Z/5-8AM SUNDAY MORNING. A PUSH BACK TOWARD VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH
NW WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG SUNDAY.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
012>014-024-025-032-072-073-078.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR
SDZ026-030-031-042>044-046-047-049-076-077.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ057-060.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ054>056.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...HINTZ
AVIATION...DYE
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