083
FXUS63 KUNR 160351
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
951 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 45+ MPH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
SD PLAINS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES (20-25F ABOVE AVERAGE) EXPECTED
FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME. ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 945 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM MN/ND INTO
OK/TX. SFC LOW SITS CENTERED OVER IL/IN WITH ATTENDANT FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWARD INTO LA. MEANWHILE, RIDGING IS BUILDING OFF THE
WEST COAST. CLOSER TO HOME, WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY SIT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW
ZERO. FRIGID AND CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO NEAR ZERO AND SUB-ZERO WINDCHILLS.
COLD AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S TOWARDS CENTRAL SD TO THE UPPER 30S IN NORTHEASTERN
WY INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN
US ON MONDAY WITH SFC WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A LINE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MOST AREAS WON'T SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, THOUGH THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS COULD PICK UP UP TO
AN INCH. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, MODEST 3-HR PRESSURE
RISES OF 2-3 MB WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE CWA, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SD. BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 40-50KT GUSTS TO MIX TO
THE SFC TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY NECESSITATE WIND HEADLINES
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
WESTERLY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S TO
80S (20-25F ABOVE AVERAGE) WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WE COULD
EASILY BREAK A FEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THIS WEEK. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, DRY
CONDITIONS, AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN WY INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...DYE
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