789
FXUS63 KUNR 161812
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1212 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR (< 0.05").
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 45+ MPH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
SD PLAINS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES (20-25F ABOVE AVERAGE) EXPECTED
FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME. ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT, PRODUCING OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN. FORECAST
PROFILES SHOW TEMPS AT 850-800MB REACHING 1-4C WHILE SURFACE TEMPS
ARE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S AND RISING QUICKLY AS THE WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, LIMITING THE ICING TOTALS TO
0.05" OR LESS. NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 945 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM MN/ND INTO
OK/TX. SFC LOW SITS CENTERED OVER IL/IN WITH ATTENDANT FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWARD INTO LA. MEANWHILE, RIDGING IS BUILDING OFF THE
WEST COAST. CLOSER TO HOME, WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY SIT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW
ZERO. FRIGID AND CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO NEAR ZERO AND SUB-ZERO WINDCHILLS.
COLD AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S TOWARDS CENTRAL SD TO THE UPPER 30S IN NORTHEASTERN
WY INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN
US ON MONDAY WITH SFC WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A LINE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MOST AREAS WON'T SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, THOUGH THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS COULD PICK UP UP TO
AN INCH. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, MODEST 3-HR PRESSURE
RISES OF 2-3 MB WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE CWA, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SD. BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 40-50KT GUSTS TO MIX TO
THE SFC TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY NECESSITATE WIND HEADLINES
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
WESTERLY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S TO
80S (20-25F ABOVE AVERAGE) WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WE COULD
EASILY BREAK A FEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THIS WEEK. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, DRY
CONDITIONS, AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN WY INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW, RAIN, AND FREEZING RAIN, MAINLY TO THE NW TO CNTRL SD
PLAINS, WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE PRECIP MAY PUSH CIGS CLOSE
TO MVFR. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHETHER OR NOT ANY ORGANIZED
PRECIP WILL OCCUR AT KGCC AND KRAP, BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A PERIOD
OF VCSH AT BOTH TERMINALS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TEMPORAL WINDOWS WE
ARE WATCHING, WITH TIMING BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z HREF
CAMS. WE'RE BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY TO MID-MORNING
TUESDAY, BUT WITH WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE. A STRONGER INCREASE
IN WINDS IS EXPECTED AFTER 17Z/11AM, NEAR OF JUST AFTER THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...13
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...KSMITH
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