343
FXUS63 KUNR 161853
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1253 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW, FREEZING-RAIN MIX LATE TONIGHT AS WARM FRONT SURGES
INTO THE AREA. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 40-45+ MPH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN SD PLAINS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES (25F+ ABOVE AVERAGE) EXPECTED FOR
THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WX CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/MERIDIONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE COUNTRY WITH AN
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A DEEP TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF STATES. FURTHER UPSTREAM,
BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
UPPER HIGH SPINNING OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA WITH WARM FRONT STRETCHING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO SURGE EASTWARD AS UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST AND WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS MUCH
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD,
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THETA-E ADVECTION RAMPS UP. AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT SURGES IN, A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT (<0.05") OF ICE ACCUMULATION,
PRIMARILY ACROSS NW SD PLAINS; FORECAST PROFILES DO NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT ICING POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL
QUICKLY TAPER OFF AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH ND. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH 40+ KNOT GUSTS ATOP
THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS 45-50 MPH DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO HINT AT
POTENTIAL WARNING LEVEL WINDS (60 MPH) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BLACK
HILLS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THESE WINDS IN THE BLACK
HILLS WILL MANIFEST. WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS, BUT WILL RE-EVAULATE WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE LATER THIS EVENING.
ANOMALOUSLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE 60S AND
70S WEDNESDAY WITH 80S LIKELY (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: NBM PROB >80F
~50-85% FOR THE REGION, WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL SOUTH OF I-90.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW, RAIN, AND FREEZING RAIN, MAINLY TO THE NW TO CNTRL SD
PLAINS, WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE PRECIP MAY PUSH CIGS CLOSE
TO MVFR. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHETHER OR NOT ANY ORGANIZED
PRECIP WILL OCCUR AT KGCC AND KRAP, BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A PERIOD
OF VCSH AT BOTH TERMINALS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TEMPORAL WINDOWS WE
ARE WATCHING, WITH TIMING BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z HREF
CAMS. WE'RE BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY TO MID-MORNING
TUESDAY, BUT WITH WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE. A STRONGER INCREASE
IN WINDS IS EXPECTED AFTER 17Z/11AM, NEAR OF JUST AFTER THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
(GUSTS 35-50 MPH) ACROSS THE PLAINS. WHILE THE RECENT SNOW COVER
WILL LIMIT FIRE CONDITIONS TUESDAY, EXPECT RAPID MELTING WITH
WARMER AIR.
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT
DAILY ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM (25F+ ABOVE
NORMAL).
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SE
AVIATION...KSMITH
FIRE WEATHER...SE
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