359
FXUS63 KUNR 170441
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1041 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW, FREEZING-RAIN MIX LATE TONIGHT AS WARM FRONT SURGES
INTO THE AREA. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 40-45+ MPH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN SD PLAINS. THE BLACK HILLS COULD SEE GUSTS OF 50+
MPH.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES (25F+ ABOVE AVERAGE) EXPECTED FOR
THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WX CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US
WITH STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. WARM FRONT IS DRAPED OVER
MT, EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN WY. A FEW LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS ARE POPPING UP OVER WESTERN SD AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMS INTO THE REGION, THOUGH A QUICK GLANCE AT WEBCAMS VERIFY
THAT NOT MUCH, IF ANYTHING, IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND.
WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT WITH INCREASING THETA-E
ADVECTION SUPPORTING A LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP. FORECAST PROFILES
SUPPORT BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. IN TERMS OF ICE
ACCUMULATIONS, STILL EXPECTING <0.05" OF ICE WITH UP TO 0.02-0.03"
ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD, SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK
HILLS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW
MORNING.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING AS
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH ND. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
40-50KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NBM PAINTING
~40-70% PROBS OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN SD PLAINS. WILL HOIST A WIND ADVSY FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. IN ADDITION, HI-RES MODELS ARE HINTING
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING CRITERIA (58+ MPH) GUSTS TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SFC OVER THE BLACK HILLS. AT THIS POINT, STILL AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN DURATION AND COVERAGE OF WARNING CRITERIA
GUSTS TO HOIST A HIGH WIND WARNING OVER THE BLACK HILLS FOR
TOMORROW, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR GUSTS OF 50+
MPH.
ANOMALOUSLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE 60S
AND 70S WEDNESDAY. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WHERE NBM PROBS HAVE ~50-85% FOR >80F FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD
AND NORTHEASTERN WY PLAINS, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL SOUTH OF
I-90.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
A VERY DIFFUSE LINE OF MIXED (-RA/-SN/-FZRA) PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN WY/WESTERN SD
OVERNIGHT, AND THEN EXIT THE AREA BY 17/18Z. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR WITH THE PRECIPITATION. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
35-45KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 17/17Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 18/00Z -
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
SD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
(GUSTS 35-50 MPH) ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS WITH GUSTS OF 50+
MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE WARM, DRY,
AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WX CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SD AND THE
WESTON COUNTY PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, THE RECENT SNOW
COVER WILL MITIGATE FIRE RISK, BUT THE WARMER AIR WILL LEAD TO
RAPID MELTING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
EXPECT DAILY ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM (25F+
ABOVE NORMAL).
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
013-025-041-072-073-078.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...WONG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page