090
FXUS63 KUNR 221827
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1227 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS; WARMEST AND
DRIES WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- COLD FRONT TO BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ALONG
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS.
- TRENDING MILD AND DRY AGAIN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OVERSPREADS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ND AND
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD. EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUDS COVER THE CWA
NOW, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER IS SLOWLY ERODING. THESE LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE 40S TO LOW
50S.
SOUTHWESTERN UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT AS WARM AS THIS PAST WEEK, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED (UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70) WITH ELEVATED TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 70S AND LOW 80S LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-90. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
COOLER, YET SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER
FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A
DEEPER WESTERN TROUGH LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK, ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS LOCALLY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN SD (AND LOCALLY IFR VSBY IN THE BLACK
HILLS AREA) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SD INTO THE
WESTERN SD PLAINS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL (20-30 PERCENT).
REGARDLESS, DRY FUELS AND STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. LIGHTER WINDS TUESDAY WILL MODERATE FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY (15-
25 PERCENT) WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ELEVATED CONDITIONS.
WARMEST DAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 70S AND LOW 80S
(MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90) WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS NE WY
PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE,
ALTHOUGH MINIMAL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SE
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...SE
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