945
FXUS63 KUNR 230431
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1031 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS; WARMEST AND
DRIES WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- COLD FRONT TO BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ALONG
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS.
- TRENDING MILD AND DRY AGAIN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1006 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. CAMS SHOW
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD
MONDAY MORNING AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP, SO HAVE ADDED SOME ADDED
SOME LIGHT POPS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE EXPECT WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS IN WARMER AIR
THROUGH MID-WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY, WITH MODELS
SHOWING TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS TO RETURN AS WELL, GIVEN THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE ELEVATED
TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH RH POTENTIALLY DIPPING INTO THE
LOW TEENS FROM NORTHEAST WY DOWN INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD, AND WIND
GUSTS 25 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE BETTER FORCING
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR NOW. COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER
NORTHWESTERN SD, AND TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OVERSPREADS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ND AND
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD. EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUDS COVER THE CWA
NOW, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER IS SLOWLY ERODING. THESE LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE 40S TO LOW
50S.
SOUTHWESTERN UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT AS WARM AS THIS PAST WEEK, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED (UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70) WITH ELEVATED TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 70S AND LOW 80S LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-90. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
COOLER, YET SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER
FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A
DEEPER WESTERN TROUGH LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK, ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS LOCALLY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SD INTO THE
WESTERN SD PLAINS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL (20-30 PERCENT).
REGARDLESS, DRY FUELS AND STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. LIGHTER WINDS TUESDAY WILL MODERATE FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY (15-
25 PERCENT) WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ELEVATED CONDITIONS.
WARMEST DAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 70S AND LOW 80S
(MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90) WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS NE WY
PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE,
ALTHOUGH MINIMAL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...DYE
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SE
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...SE
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